Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic underlined the need for pandemic planning but also brought into focus the use of mathematical modelling to support public health decisions. The types of models needed (compartment, agent-based, importation) are described. Best practices regarding biological realism (including the need for multidisciplinary expert advisors to modellers), model complexity, consideration of uncertainty and communications to decision-makers and the public are outlined.

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis for the selection of sentinel regions in tick-borne disease surveillance.

Background: The implementation of cost-effective surveillance systems is essential for tracking the emerging risk of tick-borne diseases. In Canada, where Lyme disease is a growing public health concern, a national sentinel surveillance network was designed to follow the epidemiological portrait of this tick-borne disease across the country. The surveillance network consists of sentinel regions, with active drag sampling carried out annually in all regions to assess the density of Ixodes spp.

Forest Disturbance and Disease: Exploring the Effects of Tree Harvesting Area on sensu lato Infection Risk, Vancouver Island, Canada, 1998-2014.

Background: The disturbance of colonized trees and soil, such as through forestry activities, has been proposed to disperse soil- and tree-inhabiting fungal pathogens. sensu lato is one such pathogen that was detected on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, beginning in 1999 and caused human and animal illness.

Objectives: Our aim was to determine if s.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America.

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation.