State of the art modelling for the Black Sea ecosystem to support European policies.

The Black Sea is affected by numerous anthropogenic pressures, such as eutrophication and pollution through coastal and river discharges, fisheries overexploitation, species invasions, and the impacts of climate change. Growing concerns regarding the cumulative effects of these pressures have necessitated the need for an ecosystem approach to assessing the state of this basin. In recent years, the European Commission-JRC has developed a scientific and modelling tool, the Blue2 Modelling Framework with the aim of exploring the consequences of EU management and policy options on marine ecosystems.

Effects of sea ice on Baltic Sea eutrophication.

This study investigates the influence of sea ice on eutrophication in the Baltic Sea ecosystem by comparing simulations from 1953 to 2017, with ice and without ice cover. We assessed the impact from ice cover by using eutrophication indicators defined by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), the Dia/Dino index and the newly proposed Trophic Transfer Index (TTI). Five out of six indicators suggest a negative impact of sea ice on the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea, with a marked increase in ice impact observed in the early 1970s, followed by a decline in the late 1980s.

Transport and dispersion of PFOA and PFOS in the Black Sea.

A 3-D transport and dispersion model was applied to study the recent past and future dynamics of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) concentrations in the Black Sea for the 2016-2030 period. The modelled surface concentrations show a distinct seasonal behaviour, shaped by winter to spring convective mixing. A significant increasing long-term trend in PFOS concentrations is established, with concentrations in water layers 200 m below the surface increasing at 4-8% per year.

Should we reconsider how to assess eutrophication?

Eutrophication in marine waters is traditionally assessed by checking if nutrients, algal biomass and oxygen are below/above a given threshold. However, increased biomass, nutrient concentrations and oxygen demand do not lead to undesirable environmental effects if the flow of carbon/energy from primary producers toward high trophic levels is consistently preserved. Consequently, traditional indicators might provide a misleading assessment of the eutrophication risk.

Modelling the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem at high spatial resolution to inform the ecosystem-based management in the region.

Cumulative pressures are rapidly expanding in the Mediterranean Sea with consequences for marine biodiversity and marine resources, and the services they provide. Policy makers urge for a marine ecosystem assessment of the region in space and time. This study evaluates how the whole Mediterranean food web may have responded to historical changes in the climate, environment and fisheries, through the use of an ecosystem modelling over a long time span (decades) at high spatial resolution (8 × 8 km), to inform regional and sub-regional management.