Epihiper-A high performance computational modeling framework to support epidemic science.

This paper describes Epihiper, a state-of-the-art, high performance computational modeling framework for epidemic science. The Epihiper modeling framework supports custom disease models, and can simulate epidemics over dynamic, large-scale networks while supporting modulation of the epidemic evolution through a set of user-programmable interventions. The nodes and edges of the social-contact network have customizable sets of static and dynamic attributes which allow the user to specify intervention target sets at a very fine-grained level; these also permit the network to be updated in response to nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures.

Role of heterogeneity: National scale data-driven agent-based modeling for the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

UVA-EpiHiper is a national scale agent-based model to support the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH). UVA-EpiHiper uses a detailed representation of the underlying social contact network along with data measured during the course of the pandemic to initialize and calibrate the model. In this paper, we study the role of heterogeneity on model complexity and resulting epidemic dynamics using UVA-EpiHiper.

Comparative Genomic Analysis of Bacterial Data in BV-BRC: An Example Exploring Antimicrobial Resistance.

As genomic and related data continue to expand, research biologists are often hampered by the computational hurdles required to analyze their data. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) established the Bioinformatics Resource Centers (BRC) to assist researchers with their analysis of genome sequence and other omics-related data. Recently, the PAThosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC), the Influenza Research Database (IRD), and the Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR) BRCs merged to form the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Resource Center (BV-BRC) at https://www.

Novel multi-cluster workflow system to support real-time HPC-enabled epidemic science: Investigating the impact of vaccine acceptance on COVID-19 spread.

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. .

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.

Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support.

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of () an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; () a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; () a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; () an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions.

Introducing the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Resource Center (BV-BRC): a resource combining PATRIC, IRD and ViPR.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) established the Bioinformatics Resource Center (BRC) program to assist researchers with analyzing the growing body of genome sequence and other omics-related data. In this report, we describe the merger of the PAThosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC), the Influenza Research Database (IRD) and the Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR) BRCs to form the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Resource Center (BV-BRC) https://www.bv-brc.

COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States.

Background: Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles.

Methods: To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

What Is Already Known About This Topic?: The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021.

What Is Added By This Report?: Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant.

A genomic data resource for predicting antimicrobial resistance from laboratory-derived antimicrobial susceptibility phenotypes.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global health threat that affects millions of people each year. Funding agencies worldwide and the global research community have expended considerable capital and effort tracking the evolution and spread of AMR by isolating and sequencing bacterial strains and performing antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). For the last several years, we have been capturing these efforts by curating data from the literature and data resources and building a set of assembled bacterial genome sequences that are paired with laboratory-derived AST data.

Scalable Epidemiological Workflows to Support COVID-19 Planning and Response.

The COVID-19 global outbreak represents the most significant epidemic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Simulations have played a crucial role in supporting COVID-19 planning and response efforts. Developing scalable workflows to provide policymakers quick responses to important questions pertaining to logistics, resource allocation, epidemic forecasts and intervention analysis remains a challenging computational problem.

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments.

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors.

From 5Vs to 6Cs: Operationalizing Epidemic Data Management with COVID-19 Surveillance.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an unprecedented need for experts, as well as citizens, to visualize spatio-temporal disease surveillance data. Web application were quickly developed to fill this gap, including those built by JHU, WHO, and CDC, but all of these dashboards supported a particular niche view of the pandemic (ie, current status or specific regions). In this paper, we describe our work developing our own COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard, available at https://nssac.

Evaluating the impact of international airline suspensions on the early global spread of COVID-19.

Global airline networks play a key role in the global importation of emerging infectious diseases. Detailed information on air traffic between international airports has been demonstrated to be useful in retrospectively validating and prospectively predicting case emergence in other countries. In this paper, we use a well-established metric known as effective distance on the global air traffic data from IATA to quantify risk of emergence for different countries as a consequence of direct importation from China, and compare it against arrival times for the first 24 countries.

The PATRIC Bioinformatics Resource Center: expanding data and analysis capabilities.

The PathoSystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC) is the bacterial Bioinformatics Resource Center funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (https://www.patricbrc.org).

Assembly, Annotation, and Comparative Genomics in PATRIC, the All Bacterial Bioinformatics Resource Center.

In the "big data" era, research biologists are faced with analyzing new types that usually require some level of computational expertise. A number of programs and pipelines exist, but acquiring the expertise to run them, and then understanding the output can be a challenge.The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC, www.

PATRIC as a unique resource for studying antimicrobial resistance.

The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC, www.patricbrc.org) is designed to provide researchers with the tools and services that they need to perform genomic and other 'omic' data analyses.

Improvements to PATRIC, the all-bacterial Bioinformatics Database and Analysis Resource Center.

The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC) is the bacterial Bioinformatics Resource Center (https://www.patricbrc.org).

RNA-Rocket: an RNA-Seq analysis resource for infectious disease research.

Motivation: RNA-Seq is a method for profiling transcription using high-throughput sequencing and is an important component of many research projects that wish to study transcript isoforms, condition specific expression and transcriptional structure. The methods, tools and technologies used to perform RNA-Seq analysis continue to change, creating a bioinformatics challenge for researchers who wish to exploit these data. Resources that bring together genomic data, analysis tools, educational material and computational infrastructure can minimize the overhead required of life science researchers.