Prospective heat stress risk assessment for professional soccer players in the context of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

This study investigates the risk of severe heat stress and associated potential water losses in professional soccer players, considering as well the oxygen content of the inhaled air in the context of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. For the 16 stadiums, hourly values of biometeorological indices (adjusted Universal Thermal Climate Index - UTCI, Water loss - SW and Oxygen volume - Ov) were calculated. UTCI adjustments included modifications to activity levels, movement speeds and clothing configurations to better reflect the level of thermal stress on soccer player during a match.

A modelling framework for local thermal comfort assessment related to bicycle helmet use.

Thermal discomfort due to accumulated sweat increasing head skin wettedness may contribute to low wearing rates of bicycle helmets. Using curated data on human head sweating and helmet thermal properties, a modelling framework for the thermal comfort assessment of bicycle helmet use is proposed. Local sweat rates (LSR) at the head were predicted as the ratio to the gross sweat rate (GSR) of the whole body or by sudomotor sensitivity (SUD), the change in LSR per change in body core temperature (Δt).

A mathematical model for predicting cardiovascular responses at rest and during exercise in demanding environmental conditions.

The present research describes the development and validation of a cardiovascular model (CVR Model) for use in conjunction with advanced thermophysiological models, where usually only a total cardiac output is estimated. The CVR Model detailed herein estimates cardio-dynamic parameters (changes in cardiac output, stroke volume, and heart rate), regional blood flow, and muscle oxygen extraction, in response to rest and physical workloads, across a range of ages and aerobic fitness levels, as well as during exposure to heat, dehydration, and altitude. The model development strategy was to first establish basic resting and exercise predictions for cardio-dynamic parameters in an "ideal" environment (cool, sea level, and hydrated person).

Estimated work ability in warm outdoor environments depends on the chosen heat stress assessment metric.

With a view to occupational effects of climate change, we performed a simulation study on the influence of different heat stress assessment metrics on estimated workability (WA) of labour in warm outdoor environments. Whole-day shifts with varying workloads were simulated using as input meteorological records for the hottest month from four cities with prevailing hot (Dallas, New Delhi) or warm-humid conditions (Managua, Osaka), respectively. In addition, we considered the effects of adaptive strategies like shielding against solar radiation and different work-rest schedules assuming an acclimated person wearing light work clothes (0.

Thermal Indices and Thermophysiological Modeling for Heat Stress.

The assessment of the risk of human exposure to heat is a topic as relevant today as a century ago. The introduction and use of heat stress indices and models to predict and quantify heat stress and heat strain has helped to reduce morbidity and mortality in industrial, military, sports, and leisure activities dramatically. Models used range from simple instruments that attempt to mimic the human-environment heat exchange to complex thermophysiological models that simulate both internal and external heat and mass transfer, including related processes through (protective) clothing.

Modified wind chill temperatures determined by a whole body thermoregulation model and human-based facial convective coefficients.

Wind chill equivalent temperatures (WCETs) were estimated by a modified Fiala's whole body thermoregulation model of a clothed person. Facial convective heat exchange coefficients applied in the computations concurrently with environmental radiation effects were taken from a recently derived human-based correlation. Apart from these, the analysis followed the methodology used in the derivation of the currently used wind chill charts.

The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI compared to ergonomics standards for assessing the thermal environment.

The growing need for valid assessment procedures of the outdoor thermal environment in the fields of public weather services, public health systems, urban planning, tourism & recreation and climate impact research raised the idea to develop the Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI based on the most recent scientific progress both in thermo-physiology and in heat exchange theory. Following extensive validation of accessible models of human thermoregulation, the advanced multi-node 'Fiala' model was selected to form the basis of UTCI. This model was coupled with an adaptive clothing model which considers clothing habits by the general urban population and behavioral changes in clothing insulation related to actual environmental temperature.

Validation of the Fiala multi-node thermophysiological model for UTCI application.

The important requirement that COST Action 730 demanded of the physiological model to be used for the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was its capability of accurate simulation of human thermophysiological responses across a wide range of relevant environmental conditions, such as conditions corresponding to the selection of all habitable climates and their seasonal changes, and transient conditions representing the temporal variation of outdoor conditions. In the first part of this study, available heat budget/two-node models and multi-node thermophysiological models were evaluated by direct comparison over a wide spectrum of climatic conditions. The UTCI-Fiala model predicted most reliably the average human thermal response, as shown by least deviations from physiologically plausible responses when compared to other models.

Deriving the operational procedure for the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).

The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) aimed for a one-dimensional quantity adequately reflecting the human physiological reaction to the multi-dimensionally defined actual outdoor thermal environment. The human reaction was simulated by the UTCI-Fiala multi-node model of human thermoregulation, which was integrated with an adaptive clothing model. Following the concept of an equivalent temperature, UTCI for a given combination of wind speed, radiation, humidity and air temperature was defined as the air temperature of the reference environment, which according to the model produces an equivalent dynamic physiological response.

The UTCI-clothing model.

The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was conceived as a thermal index covering the whole climate range from heat to cold. This would be impossible without considering clothing as the interface between the person (here, the physiological model of thermoregulation) and the environment. It was decided to develop a clothing model for this application in which the following three factors were considered: (1) typical dressing behaviour in different temperatures, as observed in the field, resulting in a model of the distribution of clothing over the different body segments in relation to the ambient temperature, (2) the changes in clothing insulation and vapour resistance caused by wind and body movement, and (3) the change in wind speed in relation to the height above ground.

Predicting urban outdoor thermal comfort by the Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI--a case study in Southern Brazil.

Recognising that modifications to the physical attributes of urban space are able to promote improved thermal outdoor conditions and thus positively influence the use of open spaces, a survey to define optimal thermal comfort ranges for passers-by in pedestrian streets was conducted in Curitiba, Brazil. We applied general additive models to study the impact of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as long-wave and short-wave radiant heat fluxes as summarised by the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) on the choice of clothing insulation by fitting LOESS smoothers to observations from 944 males and 710 females aged from 13 to 91 years. We further analysed votes of thermal sensation compared to predictions of UTCI.

UTCI-Fiala multi-node model of human heat transfer and temperature regulation.

The UTCI-Fiala mathematical model of human temperature regulation forms the basis of the new Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTC). Following extensive validation tests, adaptations and extensions, such as the inclusion of an adaptive clothing model, the model was used to predict human temperature and regulatory responses for combinations of the prevailing outdoor climate conditions. This paper provides an overview of the underlying algorithms and methods that constitute the multi-node dynamic UTCI-Fiala model of human thermal physiology and comfort.

Physiological responses to temperature and humidity compared to the assessment by UTCI, WGBT and PHS.

In COST Action 730, a multi-segmental thermophysiological model was used to describe physiological strain reactions for different climatic conditions in order to develop a 'Universal Thermal Climate Index' (UTCI). UTCI predictions for warm climates were compared with empirical data from the laboratory tests. The comparison was performed by means of equivalence lines within a psychrometric chart so that the combined influence of air temperature and humidity on physiological strain may be assessed.

Physiological modeling for technical, clinical and research applications.

Various and disparate technical disciplines have identified a growing need for tools to predict human thermal and thermoregulatory responses to environmental heating and cooling and other thermal challenges such as anesthesia and non-ionizing radiation. In this contribution, a dynamic simulation model is presented and used to predict human thermophysiological and perceptual responses for different applications and situations. The multi-segmental, multi-layered mathematical model predicts body temperatures, thermoregulatory responses, and components of the environmental heat exchange in cold, moderate, as well as hot stress conditions.

Single-sector thermophysiological human simulator.

Thermal sweating manikins are used to analyse the heat and mass transfer phenomena in the skin-clothing-environment system. However, the limiting factor of present thermal manikins is their inability to simulate adequately the human thermal behaviour, which has a significant effect on the clothing microenvironment. A mathematical model of the human physiology was, therefore, incorporated into the system control to simulate human thermoregulatory responses and the perception of thermal comfort over a wide range of environmental and personal conditions.

Validation of an individualised model of human thermoregulation for predicting responses to cold air.

Most computer models of human thermoregulation are population based. Here, we individualised the Fiala model [Fiala et al. (2001) Int J Biometeorol 45:143-159] with respect to anthropometrics, body fat, and metabolic rate.