Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity.

Large scale changes in biodiversity and conservation management require long-term goals and planning across multiple sectors in the face of increasing global change. Major trends in land use and management interventions, species additions or losses, and climate are well recognized, but responses are still often short-term and fragmented across agencies and sectors. Scenario-building can be a powerful tool to imagine possible futures, integrating across sectors and disciplines and promoting long-term thinking and planning.

Long-term exclusion of invasive ungulates alters tree recruitment and functional traits but not total forest carbon.

Forests are major carbon (C) sinks, but their ability to sequester C and thus mitigate climate change, varies with the environment, disturbance regime, and biotic interactions. Herbivory by invasive, nonnative ungulates can have profound ecosystem effects, yet its consequences for forest C stocks remain poorly understood. We determined the impact of invasive ungulates on C pools, both above- and belowground (to 30 cm), and on forest structure and diversity using 26 paired long-term (>20 years) ungulate exclosures and adjacent unfenced control plots located in native temperate rainforests across New Zealand, spanning 36-41° S.

Community- and trophic-level responses of soil nematodes to removal of a non-native tree at different stages of invasion.

Success of invasive non-native plant species management is usually measured as changes in the abundance of the invasive plant species or native plant species following invader management, but more complex trophic responses to invader removal are often ignored or assumed. Moreover, the effects of invader removal at different stages of the invasion process is rarely evaluated, despite a growing recognition that invader impacts are density or stage-dependent. Therefore, the effectiveness of invasive species management for restoring community structure and function across trophic levels remains poorly understood.

Microbial and abiotic controls on mineral-associated organic matter in soil profiles along an ecosystem gradient.

Formation of mineral-organic associations is a key process in the global carbon cycle. Recent concepts propose litter quality-controlled microbial assimilation and direct sorption processes as main factors in transferring carbon from plant litter into mineral-organic associations. We explored the pathways of the formation of mineral-associated organic matter (MOM) in soil profiles along a 120-ky ecosystem gradient that developed under humid climate from the retreating Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand.

Contrasting responses of soil nematode communities to native and non-native woody plant expansion.

Woody plant expansion into grasslands is widespread, driven by both successions to dominance by native woody species or invasion by non-native woody species. These shifts from grass- to woody-dominated systems also have profound effects on both above- and belowground communities and ecosystem processes. Woody-plant expansion should also alter the functional composition of the soil biota, including that of nematodes, which are major drivers of soil food-web structure and belowground processes, but such belowground impacts are poorly understood.

Global effects of non-native tree species on multiple ecosystem services.

Non-native tree (NNT) species have been transported worldwide to create or enhance services that are fundamental for human well-being, such as timber provision, erosion control or ornamental value; yet NNTs can also produce undesired effects, such as fire proneness or pollen allergenicity. Despite the variety of effects that NNTs have on multiple ecosystem services, a global quantitative assessment of their costs and benefits is still lacking. Such information is critical for decision-making, management and sustainable exploitation of NNTs.

Symmetric assembly and disassembly processes in an ecological network.

The processes whereby ecological networks emerge, persist and decay throughout ecosystem development are largely unknown. Here we study networks of plant and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities along a 120 000 year soil chronosequence, as they undergo assembly (progression) and then disassembly (retrogression). We found that network assembly and disassembly were symmetrical, self-reinforcing processes that together were capable of generating key attributes of network architecture.

Belowground competition drives invasive plant impact on native species regardless of nitrogen availability.

Plant invasions and eutrophication are pervasive drivers of global change that cause biodiversity loss. Yet, how invasive plant impacts on native species, and the mechanisms underpinning these impacts, vary in relation to increasing nitrogen (N) availability remains unclear. Competition is often invoked as a likely mechanism, but the relative importance of the above and belowground components of this is poorly understood, particularly under differing levels of N availability.

Hierarchical neighbor effects on mycorrhizal community structure and function.

Theory predicts that neighboring communities can shape one another's composition and function, for example, through the exchange of member species. However, empirical tests of the directionality and strength of these effects are rare. We determined the effects of neighboring communities on one another through experimental manipulation of a plant-fungal model system.

Soil fertility and disturbance interact to drive contrasting responses of co-occurring native and nonnative species.

Some plant functional groups such as nonnative invasive and nitrogen (N)-fixing plants are widely thought to have consistent, coordinated differences in their functional traits relative to other groups such as native and non -N-fixing plants. Recent evidence suggests that these trait differences between groups can be context dependent, varying with environmental factors such as resource availability and disturbance. However, many previous comparisons among plant groups differing in invasion status have not standardized growth form between groups or have compared species that do not co-occur, which could result in invasion status per se being confounded with other factors.

Mycorrhizal co-invasion and novel interactions depend on neighborhood context.

Biological invasions are a rapidly increasing driver of global change, yet fundamental gaps remain in our understanding of the factors determining the success or extent of invasions. For example, although most woody plant species depend on belowground mutualists such as mycorrhizal fungi and nitrogen-fixing bacteria, the relative importance of these mutualisms in conferring invasion success is unresolved. Here, we describe how neighborhood context (identity of nearby tree species) affects the formation of belowground ectomycorrhizal partnerships between fungi and seedlings of a widespread invasive tree species, Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), in New Zealand.

A global meta-analysis of the relative extent of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities.

Recent studies have shown that accounting for intraspecific trait variation (ITV) may better address major questions in community ecology. However, a general picture of the relative extent of ITV compared to interspecific trait variation in plant communities is still missing. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of the relative extent of ITV within and among plant communities worldwide, using a data set encompassing 629 communities (plots) and 36 functional traits.

Host identity is a dominant driver of mycorrhizal fungal community composition during ecosystem development.

Little is known about the response of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities to ecosystem development. We use a long-term soil chronosequence that includes ecosystem progression and retrogression to quantify the importance of host plant identity as a factor driving fungal community composition during ecosystem development. We identified arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and plant species from 50 individual roots from each of 10 sites spanning 5-120 000 yr of ecosystem age using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), Sanger sequencing and pyrosequencing.

Intraspecific relationships among wood density, leaf structural traits and environment in four co-occurring species of Nothofagus in New Zealand.

Plant functional traits capture important variation in plant strategy and function. Recent literature has revealed that within-species variation in traits is greater than previously supposed. However, we still have a poor understanding of how intraspecific variation is coordinated among different traits, and how it is driven by environment.

Declining foliar and litter δ¹⁵N diverge from soil, epiphyte and input δ¹⁵N along a 120,000 yr temperate rainforest chronosequence.

Patterns in the natural abundance of nitrogen (N) isotopes (¹⁵N and ¹⁴N) can help in the understanding of ecosystem processes along environmental gradients, because some processes fractionate against the heavier isotope. We measured δ¹⁵N in many components of the Franz Josef soil chronosequence in New Zealand to see how each component varied along the sequence and within sites, and to see what this variation can tell us about how ecosystem processes such as N losses change with soil age. We analyzed δ¹⁵N in foliage from 18 woody species, abscised leaves from seven woody species, three soil horizons, bryophytes, lichens, bulk deposition, and nodules from the N-fixing tree Coriaria arborea (Coriariaceae).

Co-invasion by Pinus and its mycorrhizal fungi.

*The absence of co-evolved mutualists of plants invading a novel habitat is the logical corollary of the more widely recognized 'enemy escape'. To avoid or overcome the loss of mutualists, plants may co-invade with nonnative mutualists, form novel associations with native mutualists or form associations with native cosmopolitan mutualists, which are native but not novel to the invading plant. *We tested these hypotheses by contrasting the ectomycorrhizal fungal communities associated with invasive Pinus contorta in New Zealand with co-occurring endemic Nothofagus solandri var.

Photosynthesis and reflectance indices for rainforest species in ecosystems undergoing progression and retrogression along a soil fertility chronosequence in New Zealand.

Measurements of photosynthesis at saturating irradiance and CO2 partial pressure, Amax, "adjusted" normalised difference vegetation index, RaNDVI, and photochemical reflectance index, RPRI, were made on trees sampled along a soil chronosequence to investigate the relationship between carbon uptake and ecosystem development in relation to nutrient availability. Measurements were made on the three most dominant species at six sites along the sequence in South Westland, New Zealand with soil age ranging from < 6 to 120,000 years resulting from the retreat of the Franz Josef glacier. The decrease in soil phosphorus availability with increasing soil age and high soil nitrogen availability at the two youngest sites, due to the presence of a nitrogen-fixing species, provided marked differences in nutrient availability.

Respiration characteristics in temperate rainforest tree species differ along a long-term soil-development chronosequence.

We measured the response of dark respiration (R(d)) to temperature and foliage characteristics in the upper canopies of tree species in temperate rainforest communities in New Zealand along a soil chronosequence (six sites from 6 years to 120,000 years). The chronosequence provided a vegetation gradient characterised by significant changes in soil nutrition. This enabled us to examine the extent to which changes in dark respiration can be applied across forest biomes and the utility of scaling rules in whole-canopy carbon modelling.

Rapid development of phosphorus limitation in temperate rainforest along the Franz Josef soil chronosequence.

The aim of this study was to examine how shifts in soil nutrient availability along a soil chronosequence affected temperate rainforest vegetation. Soil nutrient availability, woody plant diversity, composition and structure, and woody species leaf and litter nutrient concentrations were quantified along the sequence through ecosystem progression and retrogression. In this super-wet, high leaching environment, the chronosequence exhibited rapid soil development and decline within 120000 years.

Does clonal integration improve competitive ability? A test using aspen (Populus tremuloides [Salicaceae]) invasion into prairie.

Many clonal plants consist of many connected individual ramets, allowing them to share water and nutrients via physiological integration. Integration among ramets may also improve the ability of clonal plants to tolerate abiotic stress or improve the competitive ability of individual ramets. Here I use a field experiment to determine whether clonal integration improves ramet performance for a widespread clonal tree species invading into native prairie.