Partisan Stability During Turbulent Times: Evidence from Three American Panel Surveys.

Unlabelled: The past decade has witnessed profound changes in the tenor of American party politics. These changes, in tandem with growing affective polarization and residential segregation by party, raise the question of whether party identification is itself changing. Using three multi-wave panel surveys that stretch from the first Obama Administration through the Trump Administration, this paper takes a fresh look at the stability of party identification, using several different statistical approaches to differentiate true partisan change from response error.

A Radio Drama's Effects on HIV Attitudes and Policy Priorities: A Field Experiment in Tanzania.

A growing body of evidence investigates how entertainment education influences knowledge about HIV, stigma toward those with HIV, and openness to disclosing one's HIV status. The present study shows that in addition to these effects, mass media interventions may influence audiences' policy priorities, such as their demand for local access to HIV/AIDS medical care. A condensed (2 hours) version of a popular Swahili radio drama was presented to rural Tanzanians as part of a placebo-controlled experiment, clustered at the village level.

Prejudice Reduction: Progress and Challenges.

The past decade has seen rapid growth in research that evaluates methods for reducing prejudice. This essay reviews 418 experiments reported in 309 manuscripts from 2007 to 2019 to assess which approaches work best and why. Our quantitative assessment uses meta-analysis to estimate average effects.

Optimal Allocation of Interviews to Baseline and Endline Surveys in Place-Based Randomized Trials and Quasi-Experiments.

Background: Many place-based randomized trials and quasi-experiments use a pair of cross-section surveys, rather than panel surveys, to estimate the average treatment effect of an intervention. In these studies, a random sample of individuals in each geographic cluster is selected for a baseline (preintervention) survey, and an independent random sample is selected for an endline (postintervention) survey.

Objective: This design raises the question, given a fixed budget, how should a researcher allocate resources between the baseline and endline surveys to maximize the precision of the estimated average treatment effect?

Results: We formalize this allocation problem and show that although the optimal share of interviews allocated to the baseline survey is always less than one-half, it is an increasing function of the total number of interviews per cluster, the cluster-level correlation between the baseline measure and the endline outcome, and the intracluster correlation coefficient.

Assessing methods for generalizing experimental impact estimates to target populations.

Randomized experiments are considered the gold standard for causal inference, as they can provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects for the experimental participants. However, researchers and policymakers are often interested in using a specific experiment to inform decisions about other target populations. In education research, increasing attention is being paid to the potential lack of generalizability of randomized experiments, as the experimental participants may be unrepresentative of the target population of interest.

Does Product Placement Change Television Viewers' Social Behavior?

To what extent are television viewers affected by the behaviors and decisions they see modeled by characters in television soap operas? Collaborating with scriptwriters for three prime-time nationally-broadcast Spanish-language telenovelas, we embedded scenes about topics such as drunk driving or saving money at randomly assigned periods during the broadcast season. Outcomes were measured unobtrusively by aggregate city- and nation-wide time series, such as the number of Hispanic motorists arrested daily for drunk driving or the number of accounts opened in banks located in Hispanic neighborhoods. Results indicate that while two of the treatment effects are statistically significant, none are substantively large or long-lasting.

Combining List Experiment and Direct Question Estimates of Sensitive Behavior Prevalence.

Survey respondents may give untruthful answers to sensitive questions when asked directly. In recent years, researchers have turned to the list experiment (also known as the item count technique) to overcome this difficulty. While list experiments are arguably less prone to bias than direct questioning, list experiments are also more susceptible to sampling variability.

Political science. When contact changes minds: an experiment on transmission of support for gay equality.

Can a single conversation change minds on divisive social issues, such as same-sex marriage? A randomized placebo-controlled trial assessed whether gay (n = 22) or straight (n = 19) messengers were effective at encouraging voters (n = 972) to support same-sex marriage and whether attitude change persisted and spread to others in voters' social networks. The results, measured by an unrelated panel survey, show that both gay and straight canvassers produced large effects initially, but only gay canvassers' effects persisted in 3-week, 6-week, and 9-month follow-ups. We also find strong evidence of within-household transmission of opinion change, but only in the wake of conversations with gay canvassers.

Yes, but what's the mechanism? (don't expect an easy answer).

Psychologists increasingly recommend experimental analysis of mediation. This is a step in the right direction because mediation analyses based on nonexperimental data are likely to be biased and because experiments, in principle, provide a sound basis for causal inference. But even experiments cannot overcome certain threats to inference that arise chiefly or exclusively in the context of mediation analysis-threats that have received little attention in psychology.

Prejudice reduction: what works? A review and assessment of research and practice.

This article reviews the observational, laboratory, and field experimental literatures on interventions for reducing prejudice. Our review places special emphasis on assessing the methodological rigor of existing research, calling attention to problems of design and measurement that threaten both internal and external validity. Of the hundreds of studies we examine, a small fraction speak convincingly to the questions of whether, why, and under what conditions a given type of intervention works.