Ostensive communication, market exchange, mindshaping, and elephants.

Heintz & Scott-Phillips's hypothesis that the topic range and type diversity of human expressive communication gains support from consilience with prior accounts of market exchange as fundamental to unique human niche construction, and of mindshaping as much more important than mindreading. The productivity of the idea is illustrated by the light it might shed on why elephants seem to engage in continuous social communication for little evident purpose.

Psychologists should learn structural specification and experimental econometrics.

The most plausible of Yarkoni's paths to recovery for psychology is the least radical one: psychologists need truly quantitative methods that exploit the informational power of variance and heterogeneity in multiple variables. If they drop ambitions to explain entire behaviors, they could find a box full of design and econometric tools in the parts of experimental economics that don't ape psychology.

Subjective beliefs and economic preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unlabelled: The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural estimation of subjective belief distributions as well as preferences over atemporal risk, patience, and intertemporal risk. As contributors to elements of that research in laboratories and the field, we drew together those methods and applied them to an online, incentivized experiment in the United States. We have two major findings.

Is resolve mainly about resisting hyperbolic discounting?

Ainslie insightfully refines the concept of willpower by emphasizing low-effort applications of resolve. However, he gives undue weight to intertemporal discounting as the problem that willpower is needed to overcome. Nonhumans typically don't encounter choices that differ only in the time of consumption.

Eliciting Beliefs about COVID-19 Prevalence and Mortality: Epidemiological Models Compared with The Street.

Subjective belief elicitation about uncertain events has a long lineage in the economics and statistics literatures. Recent developments in the experimental elicitation and statistical estimation of subjective belief distributions allow inferences about whether these beliefs are biased relative to expert opinion, and the confidence with which they are held. Beliefs about COVID-19 prevalence and mortality interact with risk management efforts, so it is important to understand relationships between these beliefs and publicly disseminated statistics, particularly those based on evolving epidemiological models.

Addiction is socially engineered exploitation of natural biological vulnerability.

Interdisciplinary study of addiction is facilitated by relative unification of the concept. What should be sought is not formal unification through literal analytic definition, which would undermine practical flexibility within disciplines and intervention practices. However, leading controversies around whether addiction should be conceived as a 'disease', and over whether addiction is 'chosen' behavior, are made more difficult to resolve by failure to apply philosophical reflection on these general concepts.

Resource-rationality and dynamic coupling of brains and social environments.

Leider and Griffiths clarify the basis for unification between mechanism-driven and solution-driven disciplines and methodologies in cognitive science. But, two outstanding issues arise for their model of resource-rationality: human brains co-process information with their environments, rather than merely adapt to them; and this is expressed in methodological differences between disciplines that complicate Leider and Griffiths' proposed structural unification.

The Risk of Gambling Problems in the General Population: A Reconsideration.

We examine the manner in which the population prevalence of disordered gambling has usually been estimated, on the basis of surveys that suffer from a potential sample selection bias. General population surveys screen respondents using seemingly innocuous "trigger," "gateway" or "diagnostic stem" questions, applied before they ask the actual questions about gambling behavior and attitudes. Modeling the latent sample selection behavior generated by these trigger questions using up-to-date econometrics for sample selection bias correction leads to dramatically different inferences about population prevalence and comorbidities with other psychiatric disorders.

Special, radical, failure of reduction in psychiatry.

Use of network models to identify causal structure typically blocks reduction across the sciences. Entanglement of mental processes with environmental and intentional relationships, as Borsboom et al. argue, makes reduction of psychology to neuroscience particularly implausible.

Empiricism, sciences, and engineering: cognitive science as a zone of integration.

An article by Alexandra Kirsch accepted for publication in Cognitive Processing occasioned debate among reviewers about broad methodological issues in cognitive science. One of these issues is the proper place of Popperian falsificationism in the interdisciplinary cluster. Another is the tension between abstract models and theories that apply to wide classes of cognitive systems, and models of more restricted scope intended to predict specifically human patterns of thought and behavior.

Folk-economics: Inherited biases or misapplication of everyday experience?

Evidence for an EEA-derived domain-specific inference system must point to an active, latent representational structure. Otherwise we need to hypothesize only passive, virtual belief not over-ridden on the basis of the individual's experience. The folk economic beliefs identified by Boyer & Petersen (B&P), being with one exception about macroeconomics, might be virtual beliefs that people extrapolate across the micro-macro scale shift based on their experiences with markets.

Moralization of preferences and conventions and the dynamics of tribal formation.

Stanford casts original light on the question of why humans moralize some preferences. However, his account leaves some ambiguity around the relationship between the evolutionary function of moralization and the dynamics of tribal formation. Does the model govern these dynamics, or only explain why there are moralizing dispositions that more conventional modeling of the dynamics can exploit?

Disordered Gambling Prevalence: Methodological Innovations in a General Danish Population Survey.

We study Danish adult gambling behavior with an emphasis on discovering patterns relevant to public health forecasting and economic welfare assessment of policy. Methodological innovations include measurement of formative in addition to reflective constructs, estimation of prospective risk for developing gambling disorder rather than risk of being falsely negatively diagnosed, analysis with attention to sample weights and correction for sample selection bias, estimation of the impact of trigger questions on prevalence estimates and sample characteristics, and distinguishing between total and marginal effects of risk-indicating factors. The most significant novelty in our design is that nobody was excluded on the basis of their response to a 'trigger' or 'gateway' question about previous gambling history.

Malthus redux, and still blind in the same eye.

Gowdy & Krall (G&K) essentially recapitulate Malthus's classic argument for ecological pessimism in modern biological dress. Their reasoning also reproduces Malthus's blindness to the implications of technological innovation. Agriculture might have suppressed human individualism as G&K insist, but technology has tended to foster it.

First Evidence of Comorbidity of Problem Gambling and Other Psychiatric Problems in a Representative Urban Sample of South Africa.

We investigate the extent to which problem gambling in a recent South African sample, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), is comorbid with depression, anxiety and substance abuse. Data are from the 2010 South African National Urban Prevalence Study of Gambling Behavior. A representative sample of the urban adult population in South Africa (N = 3,000).

Economics is all over the map.

Bentley et al. say that economics is the science of their map's northwest quadrant, where choice is individual and transparent. This accepts the picture of the discipline common among behavioral economists who aim to drag economics southward but not eastward.

Quantum probability, choice in large worlds, and the statistical structure of reality.

Classical probability models of incentive response are inadequate in "large worlds," where the dimensions of relative risk and the dimensions of similarity in outcome comparisons typically differ. Quantum probability models for choice in large worlds may be motivated pragmatically - there is no third theory - or metaphysically: statistical processing in the brain adapts to the true scale-relative structure of the universe.

Action-oriented predictive processing and the neuroeconomics of sub-cognitive reward.

Clark expresses reservations about Friston's reductive interpretation of action-oriented predictive processing (AOPP) models of cognition, but he doesn't link these reservations to specific alternatives. Neuroeconomic models of sub-cognitive reward valuation, which, like AOPP, integrate attention with action based on prediction error, are such an alternative. They interpret reward valuation as an input to neocortical processing instead of reducing it.

Forgiveness is institutionally mediated, not an isolable modular output.

McCullough et al. recognize that revenge and forgiveness jointly constitute a functional strategic complex. However, they model the halves of the complex as outputs of modules selected for regulating dyadic relationships.

Gambling participation and problem gambling severity among rural and peri-urban poor South African adults in KwaZulu-Natal.

Poor South Africans are significantly poorer and have lower employment rates than the subjects of most published research on gambling prevalence and problem gambling. Some existing work suggests relationships between gambling activity (including severity of risk for problem gambling), income, employment status and casino proximity. The objective of the study reported here is to establish the prevalence of gambling, including at risk and pathological gambling, and the profile of gambling activities in two samples of poor South African adults living in a rural and a peri-urban community.

A taxometric analysis of problem gambling data from a South African national urban sample.

We investigate the question whether problem gambling (PG) in a recent South African sample, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), is dimensional or categorical. We use two taxometric procedures, Mean Above Minus Below A Cut (MAMBAC) and Maxim Covariance (MAXCOV), to investigate the taxonic structure of PG as constructed by the PGSI. Data are from the 2010 South African National Urban Prevalence Study of Gambling Behavior.

Special human vulnerability to low-cost collective punishment.

Guala notes that low-cost punishment is the main mechanism that deters free-riding in small human communities. This mechanism is complemented by unusual human vulnerability to gossip. Defenders of an evolutionary discontinuity supporting human sociality might seize on this as an alternative to enjoyment of moralistic aggression as a special adaptation.

An item response theory analysis of the Problem Gambling Severity Index.

Increases in the availability of gambling heighten the need for a short screening measure of problem gambling. The Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) is a brief measure that allows for the assessment of characteristics of gambling behavior and severity and its consequences. The authors evaluate the psychometric properties of the PGSI using item response theory methods in a representative sample of the urban adult population in South Africa (N = 3,000).

The relationship between addiction and reward bundling: an experiment comparing smokers and non-smokers.

Aims: Previous studies indicate that addicts show reduced preference for more delayed versus more immediate rewards compared to non-addicts. This may reflect a lower propensity to view such decisions in terms of the larger sequences to which they typically belong (e.g.