Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks.

Converting probabilistic tree species range shift projections into meaningful classes for management.

The paper deals with the management problem how to decide on tree species suitability under changing environmental conditions. It presents an algorithm that classifies the output of a range shift model for major tree species in Europe into multiple classes that can be linked to qualities characterizing the ecological niche of the species. The classes: i) Core distribution area, ii) Extended distribution area, iii) Occasional occurrence area, and iv) No occurrence area are first theoretically developed and then statistically described.