Publications by authors named "Dissanayake M Gunawardena"
Background: Rainfall data have potential use for malaria prediction. However, the relationship between rainfall and the number of malaria cases is indirect and complex.
Methods: The statistical relationships between monthly malaria case count data series and monthly mean rainfall series (extracted from interpolated station data) over the period 1972 - 2005 in districts in Sri Lanka was explored in four analyses: cross-correlation; cross-correlation with pre-whitening; inter-annual; and seasonal inter-annual regression.
Background: Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Despite a relatively good national case reporting system in Sri Lanka, detailed maps of malaria distribution have not been publicly available.
Methods: In this study, monthly records over the period 1995 - 2000 of microscopically confirmed malaria parasite positive blood film readings, at sub-district spatial resolution, were used to produce maps of malaria distribution across the island. Also, annual malaria trends at district resolution were displayed for the period 1995 - 2002.