Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21 century.

Global warming is expected to not only impact mean temperatures but also temperature variability, substantially altering climate extremes. Here we show that human-caused changes in internal year-to-year temperature variability are expected to emerge from the unforced range by the end of the 21 century across climate model initial-condition large ensembles forced with a strong global warming scenario. Different simulated changes in globally averaged regional temperature variability between models can be explained by a trade-off between strong increases in variability on tropical land and substantial decreases in high latitudes, both shown by most models.