Willingness to pay for morbidity and mortality risk reductions during an epidemic. Theory and preliminary evidence from COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the strong social distancing measures adopted by governments around the world provide an ideal scenario to evaluate the trade-off between lives saved and morbidity avoided on the one hand and reduced economic resources on the other. We adapt the standard model of willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality/morbidity risk reductions by incorporating a number of aspects that are highly relevant during an epidemic; namely, health-care capacity constraints, dynamic aspects of prevention (i.e.