Detection of Real-Time Changes in Direction of COVID-19 Transmission Using National- and State-Level Epidemic Trends Based on R Estimates - United States Overall and New Mexico, April-October 2024.

Public health practitioners rely on timely surveillance data for planning and decision-making; however, surveillance data are often subject to delays. Epidemic trend categories, based on time-varying effective reproductive number (R) estimates that use nowcasting methods, can mitigate reporting lags in surveillance data and detect changes in community transmission before reporting is completed. CDC analyzed the performance of epidemic trend categories for COVID-19 during summer 2024 in the United States and at the state level in New Mexico.

Small Area Estimation of PSA Testing in US States and Counties.

Background: In 2012, the US Preventive Services Task Force recommended against prostate cancer screening using the PSA test for all age groups. In 2018, the US Preventive Services Task Force's recommendation shifted from a "D" (not recommended) to a "C" (selectively offering PSA-based screening based on professional judgment and patient preferences) in men ages 55 to 69. Limited reliable county-level prostate cancer screening data are available for cancer surveillance purposes.

Mortality Surveillance for the COVID-19 Pandemic: Review of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Multiple System Strategy.

Mortality surveillance systems can have limitations, including reporting delays, incomplete reporting, missing data, and insufficient detail on important risk or sociodemographic factors that can impact the accuracy of estimates of current trends, disease severity, and related disparities across subpopulations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used multiple data systems during the COVID-19 emergency response-line-level case‒death surveillance, aggregate death surveillance, and the National Vital Statistics System-to collectively provide more comprehensive and timely information on COVID-19‒associated mortality necessary for informed decisions. This article will review in detail the line-level, aggregate, and National Vital Statistics System surveillance systems and the purpose and use of each.

COVID-19 Surveillance After Expiration of the Public Health Emergency Declaration - United States, May 11, 2023.

On January 31, 2020, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declared, under Section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, a U.

Spatiotemporal trends in teen birth rates in the USA, 2003-2012.

The objective of this analysis was to explore temporal and spatial variation in teen birth rates TBRs across counties in the USA, from 2003 to 2012, by using hierarchical Bayesian models. Prior examination of spatiotemporal variation in TBRs has been limited by the reliance on large-scale geographies such as states, because of the potential instability in TBRs at smaller geographical scales such as counties. We implemented hierarchical Bayesian models with space-time interaction terms and spatially structured and unstructured random effects to produce smoothed county level TBR estimates, allowing for examination of spatiotemporal patterns and trends in TBRs at a smaller geographic scale across the USA.

Hot spots, cluster detection and spatial outlier analysis of teen birth rates in the U.S., 2003-2012.

Teen birth rates have evidenced a significant decline in the United States over the past few decades. Most of the states in the US have mirrored this national decline, though some reports have illustrated substantial variation in the magnitude of these decreases across the U.S.

Mapping Geographic Variation in Infant Mortality and Related Black-White Disparities in the US.

Background: In the US, black infants remain more than twice as likely as white infants to die in the first year of life. Previous studies of geographic variation in infant mortality disparities have been limited to large metropolitan areas where stable estimates of infant mortality rates by race can be determined, leaving much of the US unexplored.

Methods: The objective of this analysis was to describe geographic variation in county-level racial disparities in infant mortality rates across the 48 contiguous US states and District of Columbia using national linked birth and infant death period files (2004-2011).

A Note on the Effect of Data Clustering on the Multiple-Imputation Variance Estimator: A Theoretical Addendum to , .

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data. Although it was originally motivated by survey nonresponse problems, it has been readily applied to other data settings. However, its general behavior still remains unclear when applied to survey data with complex sample designs, including clustering.

Out-of-Sample Fusion in Risk Prediction.

The probability that mortality from certain causes exceeds high thresholds is addressed. An out-of-sample fusion method is presented where an original real data sample is fused or combined with independent computer-generated samples in the estimation of exceedance probabilities assuming a density ratio model. Since the size of the combined sample of real and artificial data is larger than that of the real sample, the fused sample produces short confidence intervals relative to traditional methods.

Hot spots in mortality from drug poisoning in the United States, 2007-2009.

Over the past several years, the death rate associated with drug poisoning has increased by over 300% in the U.S. Drug poisoning mortality varies widely by state, but geographic variation at the substate level has largely not been explored.

Trends and geographic patterns in drug-poisoning death rates in the U.S., 1999-2009.

Background: Drug poisoning mortality has increased substantially in the U.S. over the past 3 decades.