Surface water (SW) quality is particularly vulnerable to increased concentrations of nutrients, and this issue may be exacerbated by climate change. Knowledge of the effects of temperature and rainfall on SW quality is required to take the necessary measures to achieve good SW status in the future. To address this, the aims of this study were threefold: (1) to assess how a changing climate may alter the nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus and biological oxygen demand status (BOD) of SW; (2) assess the relationship between water quality and flow; and (3) simulate diffuse and point source pollution reduction scenarios in the Júcar River Basin District in the Mediterranean region.
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