Modeling the impact of changing sexual behaviors with opposite-sex partners and STI testing among women and men ages 15-44 on STI diagnosis rates in the United States 2012-2019.

Objective: To estimate the potential contributions of reported changes in frequency of penile-vaginal sex (PVS), condom use and STI screening to changes in gonorrhea and chlamydial diagnoses from 2012 to 2019.

Methods: An agent-based model of the heterosexual population in the U.S.

Potential contribution of PrEP uptake by adolescents 15-17 years old to achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic" incidence reduction goals in the US South.

Background: The "Ending the HIV Epidemic" (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce new HIV infections in the U.S. by prioritizing federal resources towards highly impacted populations.

Modeling the impact of different PrEP targeting strategies combined with a clinic-based HIV-1 nucleic acid testing intervention in Kenya.

Background: Up to 69% of adults who acquire HIV in Kenya seek care for acute retroviral symptoms, providing an important opportunity for early diagnosis and HIV care engagement. The Tambua Mapema Plus (TMP) trial tested a combined HIV-1 nucleic acid testing, linkage, treatment, and partner notification intervention for adults with symptoms of acute HIV infection presenting to health facilities in coastal Kenya. We estimated the potential impact on the Kenyan HIV epidemic of providing PrEP to individuals testing negative in TMP, if scaled up.

Achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." incidence reduction goals among at-risk populations in the South.

Introduction: Antiretroviral medication coverage remains sub-optimal in much of the United States, particularly the Sothern region, and Non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (NHB) continue to be disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic. The "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S.

Impacts of COVID-19 on sexual behaviors, HIV prevention and care among men who have sex with men: A comparison of New York City and Metropolitan Atlanta.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted HIV prevention, care, and transmission opportunities. This likely varies by geography, given differences in COVID-19 burden and mandates over time, and by age, given different likelihoods of severe COVID-19 consequences. We consider changes in sexual behavior, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use among men who have sex with men (MSM) over the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the Atlanta metropolitan area and New York City (NYC).

Changes in Sexual Behaviors with Opposite-Sex Partners and Sexually Transmitted Infection Outcomes Among Females and Males Ages 15-44 Years in the USA: National Survey of Family Growth, 2008-2019.

Rates of reported gonorrhea and chlamydial infections have increased substantially over the past decade in the USA and disparities persist across age and race/ethnicity. We aimed to understand potential changes in sexual behaviors, sexual network attributes, and sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening that may be contributing to these trends. We analyzed data from 29,423 female and 24,605 male respondents ages 15-44 years from the National Survey of Family Growth, 2008-2019.

Effective strategies to promote HIV self-testing for men who have sex with men: Evidence from a mathematical model.

Background: HIV testing is the gateway to HIV treatment and prevention. HIV self-testing (HIVST) has potential to increase testing; however, the potential population-level impact of HIVST on the HIV epidemic and the best strategies for promoting HIVST are unknown. Our aim is to inform public health approaches for promoting HIVST as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce HIV incidence.

Effects of Condom Use on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Among Adolescent Sexual Minority Males in the United States: A Mixed Epidemiology and Epidemic Modeling Study.

Background: We examined condom use patterns and potential population-level effects of a hypothetical condom intervention on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM).

Methods: Using 3 data sets: national Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2015 to 2017 (YRBS-National), local YRBS data from 8 jurisdictions with sex of partner questions from 2011 to 2017 (YRBS-Trends), and American Men's Internet Survey (AMIS) 2014 to 2017, we assessed associations of condom use with year, age, and race/ethnicity among sexually active ASMM. Using a stochastic agent-based network epidemic model, structured and parameterized based on the above analyses, we calculated the percent of HIV infections averted over 10 years among ASMM ages 13 to 18 years by an intervention that increased condom use by 37% for 5 years and was delivered to 62% of ASMM at age 14 years.

Impacts of Changing Sexual Behavior on Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Burden Among US High School Students, 2007 to 2017.

Background: Rates of adolescent sexual activity have long been declining in the United States. We sought to estimate the number of cases of gonorrhea and chlamydia averted over 1 decade associated with these declines and associated costs saved.

Methods: We analyzed data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey of US high school students from 2007 to 2017 and combined it with epidemiological estimates drawn from the literature to parameterize a dynamic population transmission model.

Modeling the Impact of PrEP Programs for Adolescent Sexual Minority Males Based on Empirical Estimates for the PrEP Continuum of Care.

Purpose: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)-an effective and safe intervention to prevent HIV transmission-was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use by adolescents. Informed by studies of sexual behavior and PrEP adherence, retention, and promotion, we model the potential impact of PrEP use among at-risk adolescent sexual minority males.

Methods: We simulate an HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) aged 13-39.

Predicting the impact of sexual behavior change on adolescent STI in the US and New York State: a case study of the teen-SPARC tool.

Purpose: Adolescents aged 13-18 years bear a large burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and changing adolescent sexual risk behavior is a key component of reducing this burden. We demonstrate a novel publicly available modeling tool (teen-SPARC) to help state and local health departments predict the impact of behavioral change on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV burden among adolescents.

Methods: Teen-SPARC is built in Excel for familiarity and ease and parameterized using data from CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Among Adolescent Sexual Minority Males.

Purpose: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been proven safe and effective in preventing HIV among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM), but the cost-effectiveness of PrEP in ASMM remains unknown. Building on a recent epidemiological network modeling study of PrEP among ASMM, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of PrEP use in a high prevalence U.S.

Modeling the joint effects of adolescent and adult PrEP for sexual minority males in the United States.

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective and safe intervention approved for use to prevent HIV transmission. PrEP scale-up strategies and clinical practice are currently being informed by modeling studies, which have estimated the impact of PrEP in adult and adolescent MSM populations separately. This partitioning may miss important effects or yield biased estimates by excluding dependencies between populations.

Potential Impact of HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Among Black and White Adolescent Sexual Minority Males.

Objectives: To assess the potential impact of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on the HIV epidemic among Black and White adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM).

Methods: We used a network model and race-specific data from recent trials to simulate HIV transmission among a population of Black and White 13- to 18-year-old ASMM over 20 years. We estimated the number of infections prevented (impact) and the number needed to treat to prevent an infection (efficiency) under multiple coverage and adherence scenarios.

Development of an Agent-Based Model to Investigate the Impact of HIV Self-Testing Programs on Men Who Have Sex With Men in Atlanta and Seattle.

Background: In the United States HIV epidemic, men who have sex with men (MSM) remain the most profoundly affected group. Prevention science is increasingly being organized around HIV testing as a launch point into an HIV prevention continuum for MSM who are not living with HIV and into an HIV care continuum for MSM who are living with HIV. An increasing HIV testing frequency among MSM might decrease future HIV infections by linking men who are living with HIV to antiretroviral care, resulting in viral suppression.

Targeting Human Immunodeficiency Virus Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Adolescent Sexual Minority Males in Higher Prevalence Areas of the United States: A Modeling Study.

Purpose: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective and safe intervention to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in men who have sex with men; current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines indicate its use among high-risk adults. Adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM) also have significant HIV risk, but implementation strategies are likely to differ for this population. We aimed to estimate impact and efficiency of PrEP for ASMM in higher prevalence US settings, using a variety of implementation strategies and assumptions about coverage, adherence, and background prevalence.