Toward mechanistic medical digital twins: some use cases in immunology.

A fundamental challenge for personalized medicine is to capture enough of the complexity of an individual patient to determine an optimal way to keep them healthy or restore their health. This will require personalized computational models of sufficient resolution and with enough mechanistic information to provide actionable information to the clinician. Such personalized models are increasingly referred to as medical digital twins.

A systematic efficacy analysis of tuberculosis treatment with BPaL-containing regimens using a multiscale modeling approach.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a life-threatening infectious disease. The standard treatment is up to 90% effective; however, it requires the administration of four antibiotics (isoniazid, rifampicin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol [HRZE]) over long time periods. This harsh treatment process causes adherence issues for patients because of the long treatment times and a myriad of adverse effects.

Forum on immune digital twins: a meeting report.

Medical digital twins are computational models of human biology relevant to a given medical condition, which are tailored to an individual patient, thereby predicting the course of disease and individualized treatments, an important goal of personalized medicine. The immune system, which has a central role in many diseases, is highly heterogeneous between individuals, and thus poses a major challenge for this technology. In February 2023, an international group of experts convened for two days to discuss these challenges related to immune digital twins.

Calibration methods to fit parameters within complex biological models.

Mathematical and computational models of biological systems are increasingly complex, typically comprised of hybrid multi-scale methods such as ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, agent-based and rule-based models, etc. These mechanistic models concurrently simulate detail at resolutions of whole host, multi-organ, organ, tissue, cellular, molecular, and genomic dynamics. Lacking analytical and numerical methods, solving complex biological models requires iterative parameter sampling-based approaches to establish appropriate ranges of model parameters that capture corresponding experimental datasets.

Development and Analysis of Multiscale Models for Tuberculosis: From Molecules to Populations.

Although infectious disease dynamics are often analyzed at the macro-scale, increasing numbers of drug-resistant infections highlight the importance of within-host modeling that simultaneously solves across multiple scales to effectively respond to epidemics. We review multiscale modeling approaches for complex, interconnected biological systems and discuss critical steps involved in building, analyzing, and applying such models within the discipline of model credibility. We also present our two tools: CaliPro, for calibrating multiscale models (MSMs) to datasets, and tunable resolution, for fine- and coarse-graining sub-models while retaining insights.

Semi-automated colony-forming unit counting for biosafety level 3 laboratories.

Biosafety level 3 decontamination precautions motivate measuring microbial colonies using consumable photography instead of expensive automated plate counters or smartphones, and assaying drug treatments-with multiple concentrations per treatment, replicates, and controls-produces hundreds of images. Here, we present a protocol for semi-automated image analysis by hand-tuning three parameters. The parameters control for non-uniform colony growth and artifacts such as lid condensation, reflections, and plating streaks.

Optimizing tuberculosis treatment efficacy: Comparing the standard regimen with Moxifloxacin-containing regimens.

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be one of the deadliest infectious diseases in the world, causing ~1.5 million deaths every year. The World Health Organization initiated an End TB Strategy that aims to reduce TB-related deaths in 2035 by 95%.

Disease phenotypic and geospatial features vary across genetic lineages for Tuberculosis within Arkansas, 2010-2020.

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination in the United States remains elusive, and community-specific, localized intervention strategies may be necessary to meet elimination goals. A better understanding of the genotypic diversity of Mtb, the population subgroups affected by different TB strains, and differences in disease presentation associated with these strains can aid in identifying risk groups and designing tailored interventions. We analyze TB incidence and genotype data from all Arkansas counties over an 11-year time span from 2010 through 2020.

A framework for multi-scale intervention modeling: virtual cohorts, virtual clinical trials, and model-to-model comparisons.

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Concomitant immunity to M. tuberculosis infection.

Some persistent infections provide a level of immunity that protects against reinfection with the same pathogen, a process referred to as concomitant immunity. To explore the phenomenon of concomitant immunity during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we utilized HostSim, a previously published virtual host model of the immune response following Mtb infection. By simulating reinfection scenarios and comparing with data from non-human primate studies, we propose a hypothesis that the durability of a concomitant immune response against Mtb is intrinsically tied to levels of tissue resident memory T cells (Trms) during primary infection, with a secondary but important role for circulating Mtb-specific T cells.

T cell transcription factor expression evolves over time in granulomas from Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected cynomolgus macaques.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a global health concern, yearly resulting in 10 million new cases of active TB. Immunologic investigation of lung granulomas is essential for understanding host control of bacterial replication. Here, we identify and compare the pathological, cellular, and functional differences in granulomas at 4, 12, and 20 weeks post-infection in Chinese cynomolgus macaques.

A virtual host model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection identifies early immune events as predictive of infection outcomes.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases and remains a significant global health burden. TB disease and pathology can present clinically across a spectrum of outcomes, ranging from total sterilization of infection to active disease. Much remains unknown about the biology that drives an individual towards various clinical outcomes as it is challenging to experimentally address specific mechanisms driving clinical outcomes.

Structural identifiability analysis of age-structured PDE epidemic models.

Computational and mathematical models rely heavily on estimated parameter values for model development. Identifiability analysis determines how well the parameters of a model can be estimated from experimental data. Identifiability analysis is crucial for interpreting and determining confidence in model parameter values and to provide biologically relevant predictions.

Corrigendum: Spatial Organization and Recruitment of Non-Specific T Cells May Limit T Cell-Macrophage Interactions Within Granulomas.

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Neutrophil Dynamics Affect Granuloma Outcomes and Dissemination.

Neutrophil infiltration into tuberculous granulomas is often associated with higher bacteria loads and severe disease but the basis for this relationship is not well understood. To better elucidate the connection between neutrophils and pathology in primate systems, we paired data from experimental studies with our next generation computational model to identify neutrophil-related factors, including neutrophil recruitment, lifespan, and intracellular bacteria numbers, that drive granuloma-level outcomes. We predict mechanisms underlying spatial organization of neutrophils within granulomas and identify how neutrophils contribute to granuloma dissemination.

To Sobol or not to Sobol? The effects of sampling schemes in systems biology applications.

Computational and mathematical models in biology rely heavily on the parameters that characterize them. However, robust estimates for their values are typically elusive and thus a large parameter space becomes necessary for model study, particularly to make translationally impactful predictions. Sampling schemes exploring parameter spaces for models are used for a variety of purposes in systems biology, including model calibration and sensitivity analysis.

A multi-scale pipeline linking drug transcriptomics with pharmacokinetics predicts in vivo interactions of tuberculosis drugs.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease worldwide. The design of new treatments for TB is hindered by the large number of candidate drugs, drug combinations, dosing choices, and complex pharmaco-kinetics/dynamics (PK/PD). Here we study the interplay of these factors in designing combination therapies by linking a machine-learning model, INDIGO-MTB, which predicts in vitro drug interactions using drug transcriptomics, with a multi-scale model of drug PK/PD and pathogen-immune interactions called GranSim.

: A Calibration Protocol That Utilizes Parameter Density Estimation to Explore Parameter Space and Calibrate Complex Biological Models.

Introduction: Mathematical and computational modeling have a long history of uncovering mechanisms and making predictions for biological systems. However, to create a model that can provide relevant quantitative predictions, models must first be calibrated by recapitulating existing biological datasets from that system. Current calibration approaches may not be appropriate for complex biological models because: 1) many attempt to recapitulate only a single aspect of the experimental data (such as a median trend) or 2) Bayesian techniques require specification of parameter priors and likelihoods to experimental data that cannot always be confidently assigned.

Spatial Organization and Recruitment of Non-Specific T Cells May Limit T Cell-Macrophage Interactions Within Granulomas.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a worldwide health problem; successful interventions such as vaccines and treatment require a 2better understanding of the immune response to infection with (Mtb). In many infectious diseases, pathogen-specific T cells that are recruited to infection sites are highly responsive and clear infection. Yet in the case of infection with Mtb, most individuals are unable to clear infection leading to either an asymptomatically controlled latent infection (the majority) or active disease (roughly 5%-10% of infections).

Systems biology predicts that fibrosis in tuberculous granulomas may arise through macrophage-to-myofibroblast transformation.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection causes tuberculosis (TB), a disease characterized by development of granulomas. Granulomas consist of activated immune cells that cluster together to limit bacterial growth and restrict dissemination. Control of the TB epidemic has been limited by lengthy drug regimens, antibiotic resistance, and lack of a robustly efficacious vaccine.

Predicting the second wave of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the patchwork nature of disease epidemics, with infection spread dynamics varying wildly across countries and across states within the US. To explore this issue, we study and predict the spread of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI, which is home to University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University, and in close proximity to Detroit, MI, a major epicenter of the epidemic in Michigan. We apply a discrete and stochastic network-based modeling framework allowing us to track every individual in the county.

Global sensitivity analysis of biological multi-scale models.

Mathematical models of biological systems need to both reflect and manage the inherent complexities of biological phenomena. Through their versatility and ability to capture behavior at multiple scales, multi-scale models offer a valuable approach. Due to the typically nonlinear and stochastic nature of multi-scale models as well as unknown parameter values, various types of uncertainty are present; thus, effective assessment and quantification of such uncertainty through sensitivity analysis is important.

Predicting the second wave of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI.

Marissa Renardy and Denise Kirschner University of Michigan Medical School The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the patchwork nature of disease epidemics, with infection spread dynamics varying wildly across countries and across states within the US. These heteroge- neous patterns are also observed within individual states, with patches of concentrated outbreaks. Data is being generated daily at all of these spatial scales, and answers to questions regarded re- opening strategies are desperately needed.