Viral Respiratory Epidemic Modeling of Societal Segregation Based on Vaccination Status.

Background: Societal segregation of unvaccinated people from public spaces has been a novel and controversial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-era public health practice in many countries. Models exploring potential consequences of vaccination-status-based segregation have not considered how segregation influences the contact frequencies in the segregated groups. We systematically investigate implementing effects of segregation on population-specific contact frequencies and show this critically determines the predicted epidemiological outcomes, focusing on the attack rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations and the share of infections among vaccinated people that were due to contacts with infectious unvaccinated people.

Predictions from standard epidemiological models of consequences of segregating and isolating vulnerable people into care facilities.

Objectives: Since the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have imposed policies to reduce contacts between people who are presumed to be particularly vulnerable to dying from respiratory illnesses and the rest of the population. These policies typically address vulnerable individuals concentrated in centralized care facilities and entail limiting social contacts with visitors, staff members, and other care home residents. We use a standard epidemiological model to investigate the impact of such circumstances on the predicted infectious disease attack rates, for interacting robust and vulnerable populations.