Social Contact Patterns and Age Mixing before and during COVID-19 Pandemic, Greece, January 2020-October 2021.

We collected social contact data in Greece to measure contact patterns before (January 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-October 2021) and assess the effects of social distancing over time. During lockdowns, mean daily contacts decreased to 2.8-5.

Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy and Endocrine Therapy for Oestrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancers: The Neo-RT Feasibility Study.

Aims: To establish the safety and feasibility of delivering neoadjuvant radiotherapy and endocrine therapy for oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancers with palpable size 20mm or greater, for which radiotherapy might facilitate more conservative surgery.

Materials And Methods: A single-arm feasibility study was conducted. Patients received whole breast radiotherapy with or without radiotherapy to nodal areas.

A modeling framework for the analysis of the SARS-CoV2 transmission dynamics.

Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as a more reliable source of information, likely less prone to under-reporting. Since daily deaths occur from past infections weighted by their probability of death, one may infer the total number of infections accounting for their age distribution, using the data on reported deaths.

Sample size determination for prediction models via learning-type curves.

This article is concerned with sample size determination methodology for prediction models. We propose to combine the individual calculations via learning-type curves. We suggest two distinct ways of doing so, a deterministic skeleton of a learning curve and a Gaussian process centered upon its deterministic counterpart.

The PARTNER trial of neoadjuvant olaparib with chemotherapy in triple-negative breast cancer.

PARTNER is a prospective, phase II-III, randomized controlled clinical trial that recruited patients with triple-negative breast cancer, who were germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 wild type. Here we report the results of the trial. Patients (n = 559) were randomized on a 1:1 basis to receive neoadjuvant carboplatin-paclitaxel with or without 150 mg olaparib twice daily, on days 3 to 14, of each of four cycles (gap schedule olaparib, research arm) followed by three cycles of anthracycline-based chemotherapy before surgery.

Comparison of three-weekly and six-weekly pembrolizumab United Kingdom prescribing practice for advanced and resected melanoma.

Background: Pembrolizumab is approved for the treatment of advanced and resected melanoma and was originally licensed as a three-weekly infusion (Q3W). In April 2019, a six-weekly infusion schedule (Q6W) was also approved. We retrospectively reviewed pembrolizumab prescribing for patients with melanoma across multiple United Kingdom (UK) centres to compare the safety and efficacy of Q6W with Q3W in real-world clinical practice.

Surgical outcomes of gallbladder cancer: the OMEGA retrospective, multicentre, international cohort study.

Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is rare but aggressive. The extent of surgical intervention for different GBC stages is non-uniform, ranging from cholecystectomy alone to extended resections including major hepatectomy, resection of adjacent organs and routine extrahepatic bile duct resection (EBDR). Robust evidence here is lacking, however, and survival benefit poorly defined.

Evaluating the effects of second-dose vaccine-delay policies in European countries: A simulation study based on data from Greece.

The results of a simulation-based evaluation of several policies for vaccine rollout are reported, particularly focusing on the effects of delaying the second dose of two-dose vaccines. In the presence of limited vaccine supply, the specific policy choice is a pressing issue for several countries worldwide, and the adopted course of action will affect the extension or easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the next months. We employ a suitably generalised, age-structure, stochastic SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infectious → Removed) epidemic model that can accommodate quantitative descriptions of the major effects resulting from distinct vaccination strategies.

The MITRE trial protocol: a study to evaluate the microbiome as a biomarker of efficacy and toxicity in cancer patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy.

Background: The gut microbiome is implicated as a marker of response to  immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) based on preclinical mouse models and preliminary observations in limited patient series. Furthermore, early studies suggest faecal microbial transfer may have therapeutic potential, converting ICI non-responders into responders. So far, identification of specific responsible bacterial taxa has been inconsistent, which limits future application.

Lethal COG6-CDG in neonatal patient with arachnodactyly, joint contractures, and skin manifestations: Founder mutation in the Southeastern European population?

Herein, we report a lethal case of the ultra-rare COG6-congenital disorder of glycosylation (CDG) presenting with skin manifestations (scaling and erosions) and joint contractures in a neonate of Albanian origin. The patient was homozygous for a COG6 pathogenic variant, previously reported in another three individuals of Greek, Bulgarian and Turkish descent. The presence of a founder mutation in the geographical area is possible.

Towards a Semi-Automatic Early Warning System for Vector-Borne Diseases.

The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) is a function of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic drivers of disease while their economic and societal burden depends upon a number of time-varying factors. This work is concerned with the development of an early warning system that can act as a predictive tool for public health preparedness and response. We employ a host-vector model that combines entomological (mosquito data), social (immigration rate, demographic data), environmental (temperature) and geographical data (risk areas).

Point of Care Nucleic Acid Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in Hospitalized Patients: A Clinical Validation Trial and Implementation Study.

There is an urgent need for rapid SARS-CoV-2 testing in hospitals to limit nosocomial spread. We report an evaluation of point of care (POC) nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) in 149 participants with parallel combined nasal and throat swabbing for POC versus standard lab RT-PCR testing. Median time to result is 2.

A quantitative analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the bluetongue virus outbreak in the island of Lesvos, Greece, in 2014.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes an infectious disease called bluetongue, a vector-borne viral disease of ruminants, which has major implications and causes severe economic damage due to its effect on livestock. These economic costs are mostly ascribed to the trade restrictions imposed during the epidemic period. In August 2014, an epidemic of bluetongue occurred in the island of Lesvos, Greece.

Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan.

This paper is concerned with the application of recent statistical advances to inference of infectious disease dynamics. We describe the fitting of a class of epidemic models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and variational inference as implemented in the freely available Stan software. We apply the two methods to real data from outbreaks as well as routinely collected observations.

Elucidating fitness components of the invasive dermestid beetle Trogoderma granarium combining deterministic and stochastic demography.

The invasive dermestid khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, is an important pest of stored products that is subject to strict phytosanitary measures. In this study, we conducted a demographic analysis of this species at 30, 35 and 40°C, combining deterministic and stochastic approaches. The net reproductive rate, the intrinsic rate of increase, the finite rate of increase and the doubling time did not differ significantly between 30 and 35°C, while at 40°C we detected negative values of the intrinsic rate of increase and the doubling time.

A spatial predictive model for malaria resurgence in central Greece integrating entomological, environmental and social data.

Malaria constitutes an important cause of human mortality. After 2009 Greece experienced a resurgence of malaria. Here, we develop a model-based framework that integrates entomological, geographical, social and environmental evidence in order to guide the mosquito control efforts and apply this framework to data from an entomological survey study conducted in Central Greece.

Bayesian epidemic models for spatially aggregated count data.

Epidemic data often possess certain characteristics, such as the presence of many zeros, the spatial nature of the disease spread mechanism, environmental noise, serial correlation and dependence on time-varying factors. This paper addresses these issues via suitable Bayesian modelling. In doing so, we utilize a general class of stochastic regression models appropriate for spatio-temporal count data with an excess number of zeros.

Evaluating the frequency of asymptomatic Ebola virus infection.

The potential for asymptomatic infection from Ebola viruses has long been questioned. Knowing the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic substantially changes the predictions made by mathematical models and alters the corresponding decisions based upon these models. To assess the degree of asymptomatic infection occurring during an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, we carried out a serological survey in the Djera district of the Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo affected by an Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Spatio-temporal modelling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.

We present and analyse data collected during a severe epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred between July and September 2000 in a region of northeastern Greece with strategic importance since it represents the southeastern border of Europe and Asia. We implement generic Bayesian methodology, which offers flexibility in the ability to fit several realistically complex models that simultaneously capture the presence of 'excess' zeros, the spatio-temporal dependence of the cases, assesses the impact of environmental noise and controls for multicollinearity issues. Our findings suggest that the epidemic was mostly driven by the size and the animal type of each farm as well as the distance between farms while environmental and other endemic factors were not important during this outbreak.

Does Mutual Interference Affect the Feeding Rate of Aphidophagous Coccinellids? A Modeling Perspective.

Mutual interference involves direct interactions between individuals of the same species that may alter their foraging success. Larvae of aphidophagous coccinellids typically stay within a patch during their lifetime, displaying remarkable aggregation to their prey. Thus, as larvae are exposed to each other, frequent encounters may affect their foraging success.

Modeling sheep pox disease from the 1994-1998 epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece.

Sheep pox is a highly transmissible disease which can cause serious loss of livestock and can therefore have major economic impact. We present data from sheep pox epidemics which occurred between 1994 and 1998. The data include weekly records of infected farms as well as a number of covariates.

Meta-analysis of selenium accumulation and expression of antioxidant enzymes in chicken tissues.

A meta-analysis integrating results of 40 selenium (Se) supplementation experiments that originated from 35 different controlled randomized trials was carried out in an attempt to identify significant factors that affect tissue Se accumulation in chicken. Examined factors included: Se source (12 different sources examined), type of chicken (laying hens or broilers), age of birds at the beginning of supplementation, duration of supplementation, year during which the study was conducted, sex of birds, number of chickens per treatment, method of analysis, tissue type, concentration of Se determined and Se added to feed. A correlation analysis was also carried out between tissue Se concentration and glutathione peroxidase activity.

Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study.

Background: Influenza vaccine policies that maximise health benefit through efficient use of limited resources are needed. Generally, influenza vaccination programmes have targeted individuals 65 y and over and those at risk, according to World Health Organization recommendations. We developed methods to synthesise the multiplicity of surveillance datasets in order to evaluate how changing target populations in the seasonal vaccination programme would affect infection rate and mortality.