COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities: an agent-based modeling study.

Introduction: A disproportionate number of COVID-19 deaths occur in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs), where better evidence is needed to target COVID-19 interventions to prevent mortality. This study used an agent-based model to assess the role of community prevalence, vaccination strategies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 outcomes in RACFs in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: The model simulated outbreaks in RACFs over time, and was calibrated to distributions for outbreak size, outbreak duration, and case fatality rate in Victorian RACFs over 2022.

A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Outbreak Response Immunization Programs.

The impact of outbreak response immunization (ORI) can be estimated by comparing observed outcomes to modelled counterfactual scenarios without ORI, but the most appropriate metrics depend on stakeholder needs and data availability. This study developed a framework for using mathematical models to assess the impact of ORI for vaccine-preventable diseases. Framework development involved (1) the assessment of impact metrics based on stakeholder interviews and literature reviews determining data availability and capacity to capture as model outcomes; (2) mapping investment in ORI elements to model parameters to define scenarios; (3) developing a system for engaging stakeholders and formulating model questions, performing analyses, and interpreting results; and (4) example applications for different settings and pathogens.

Keeping kids in school: modelling school-based testing and quarantine strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

Background: In 2021, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a consortium of modelling groups to generate evidence assisting the transition from a goal of no community COVID-19 transmission to 'living with COVID-19', with adverse health and social consequences limited by vaccination and other measures. Due to the extended school closures over 2020-21, maximizing face-to-face teaching was a major objective during this transition. The consortium was tasked with informing school surveillance and contact management strategies to minimize infections and support this goal.

Lives saved by public health restrictions over the Victorian COVID-19 Delta variant epidemic wave, Aug-Nov 2021.

Background: Prior to mid-2021, Australia's approach to COVID-19 was to eliminate community transmission. However, between August-November 2021, the state of Victoria, Australia, experienced an outbreak of the Delta variant that continued to grow despite extensive lockdowns and public health measures in place. While these public health restrictions were ultimately unable to stop community transmission, they likely had a major impact reducing transmission and adverse health outcomes relative to voluntary risk-mitigation only (e.

COVID-19 epidemic modelling for policy decision support in Victoria, Australia 2020-2021.

Background: Policy responses to COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia over 2020-2021 have been supported by evidence generated through mathematical modelling. This study describes the design, key findings, and process for policy translation of a series of modelling studies conducted for the Victorian Department of Health COVID-19 response team during this period.

Methods: An agent-based model, Covasim, was used to simulate the impact of policy interventions on COVID-19 outbreaks and epidemic waves.

Health and economic benefits of achieving contraceptive and maternal health targets in Small Island Developing States in the Pacific and Caribbean.

Introduction: Reducing unmet need for modern contraception and expanding access to quality maternal health (MH) services are priorities for improving women's health and economic empowerment. To support investment decisions, we estimated the additional cost and expected health and economic benefits of achieving the United Nations targets of zero unmet need for modern contraceptive choices and 95% coverage of MH services by 2030 in select Small Island Developing States.

Methods: Five Pacific (Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu) and four Caribbean (Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Saint Lucia) countries were considered based on population survey data availability.

Frequent and unpredictable changes in COVID-19 policies and restrictions reduce the accuracy of model forecasts.

Between June and August 2020, an agent-based model was used to project rates of COVID-19 infection incidence and cases diagnosed as positive from 15 September to 31 October 2020 for 72 geographic settings. Five scenarios were modelled: a baseline scenario where no future changes were made to existing restrictions, and four scenarios representing small or moderate changes in restrictions at two intervals. Post hoc, upper and lower bounds for number of diagnosed Covid-19 cases were compared with actual data collected during the prediction window.

Cost optimisation analysis of the expanded programme for immunisation: balancing equity and coverage in Pakistan.

Introduction: With limited resources, attaining maximal average health service coverage can be at odds with maximising equity which attempts to promote greater reach among underserved populations. In this study, we examined the trade-offs in immunisation coverage levels and equity for children under 5 years of age in Pakistan across various subpopulations who can be targeted with different combinations of immunisation service modalities.

Methods: We conducted a detailed costing exercise across 16 geographically and demographically diverse districts in Pakistan.

Preventing a cluster from becoming a new wave in settings with zero community COVID-19 cases.

Background: In settings with zero community transmission, any new SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks are likely to be the result of random incursions. The level of restrictions in place at the time of the incursion is likely to considerably affect possible outbreak trajectories, but the probability that a large outbreak eventuates is not known.

Methods: We used an agent-based model to investigate the relationship between ongoing restrictions and behavioural factors, and the probability of an incursion causing an outbreak and the resulting growth rate.

Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility.

Modelling the impact of relaxing COVID-19 control measures during a period of low viral transmission.

Objectives: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission.

Design: Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim.

Setting: The model was calibrated for a baseline scenario reflecting the epidemiological and policy environment in Victoria during March-May 2020, a period of low community viral transmission.

Ending malnutrition in all its forms requires scaling up proven nutrition interventions and much more: a 129-country analysis.

Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2.2 calls for an end to all forms of malnutrition, with 2025 targets of a 40% reduction in stunting (relative to 2012), for wasting to occur in less than 5% of children, and for a 50% reduction in anaemia in women (15-49 years). We assessed the likelihood of countries reaching these targets by scaling up proven interventions and identified priority interventions, based on cost-effectiveness.

[Simulation for the announcement of health care-associated harm].

A participative pedagogical tool, simulation aids the transfer of competencies in relation to the complex situation of announcing health care-associated harm. The aim is to reinforce patient safety and to improve the quality of communication with patients and between health professionals.

Significance of dietary folate intake, homocysteine levels and MTHFR 677 C>T genotyping in South African patients diagnosed with depression: test development for clinical application.

Low folate intake in the presence of the functional MTHFR 677 C > T (rs1801133) polymorphism is an important cause of elevated homocysteine levels previously implicated in major depressive disorder (MDD) and many other chronic diseases. In this study the clinical relevance and inter-relationship of these aspects were evaluated in 86 South African patients diagnosed with MDD and 97 population-matched controls participating in a chronic diseases screening program. A questionnaire-based clinical and nutrition assessment was performed, homocysteine levels determined, and all study participants genotyped for MTHFR 677 C > T (rs1801133) using allele-specific TaqMan technology.

Core histone genes of Giardia intestinalis: genomic organization, promoter structure, and expression.

Background: Giardia intestinalis is a protist found in freshwaters worldwide, and is the most common cause of parasitic diarrhea in humans. The phylogenetic position of this parasite is still much debated. Histones are small, highly conserved proteins that associate tightly with DNA to form chromatin within the nucleus.