Parsing the toxicity paradox: Composition and duration of exposure alter predicted oil spill effects by orders of magnitude.

Oil spilled into an aquatic environment produces oil droplet and dissolved component concentrations and compositions that are highly variable in space and time. Toxic effects on aquatic biota vary with sensitivity of the organism, concentration, composition, environmental conditions, and frequency and duration of exposure to the mixture of oil-derived dissolved compounds. For a range of spill (surface, subsea, blowout) and oil types under different environmental conditions, modeling of oil transport, fate, and organism behavior was used to quantify expected exposures over time for planktonic, motile, and stationary organisms.

Hot and Cold: Photochemical Weathering Mediates Oil Properties and Fate Differently Depending on Seawater Temperature.

Photochemical weathering transforms petroleum oil and changes its bulk physical properties, as well as its partitioning into seawater. This transformation process is likely to occur in a cold water marine oil spill, but little is known about the behavior of photochemically weathered oil in cold water. We quantified the effect of photochemical weathering on oil properties and partitioning across temperatures.

Recommendations for the advancement of oil-in-water media and source oil characterization in aquatic toxicity test studies.

During toxicity testing, chemical analyses of oil and exposure media samples are needed to allow comparison of results between different tests as well as to assist with identification of the drivers and mechanisms for the toxic effects observed. However, to maximize the ability to compare results between different laboratories and biota, it has long been recognized that guidelines for standard protocols were needed. In 2005, the Chemical Response to Oil Spills: Ecological Effects Research Forum (CROSERF) protocol was developed with existing common analytical methods that described a standard method for reproducible preparation of exposure media as well as recommended specific analytical methods and analyte lists for comparative toxicity testing.

Bridging the lab to field divide: Advancing oil spill biological effects models requires revisiting aquatic toxicity testing.

Oil fate and exposure modeling addresses the complexities of oil composition, weathering, partitioning in the environment, and the distributions and behaviors of aquatic biota to estimate exposure histories, i.e., oil component concentrations and environmental conditions experienced over time.

Adopting a toxic unit model paradigm in design, analysis and interpretation of oil toxicity testing.

The lack of a conceptual understanding and unifying quantitative framework to guide conduct and interpretation of laboratory oil toxicity tests, has led investigators to divergent conclusions that can confuse stakeholders and impede sound decision-making. While a plethora of oil toxicity studies are available and continue to be published, due to differences in experimental design, results between studies often cannot be compared. Furthermore, much resulting data fails to advance quantitative effect models that are critically needed for oil spill risk and impact assessments.

Counter-historical study of alternative dispersant use in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response.

Recent completion of oil fate modeling and a mass budget of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill allows for a counter-historical study using quantitative Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology. Novel application of subsea dispersant injection (SSDI) during the response reduced surfacing oil, volatile organic carbon emissions, and oil on shorelines. The effectiveness of that application, and potential alternatives had dispersant not been used or been used more aggressively, were evaluated by modifying and comparing the validated oil fate model under different SSDI strategies.

Validation of oil fate and mass balance for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Evaluation of water column partitioning.

Model predictions of oil transport and fate for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (Gulf of Mexico) were compared to field observations and absolute and relative concentrations of oil compounds in samples from 900 to 1400 m depth <11 km from the well. Chemical partitioning analyses using quantitative indices support a bimodal droplet size distribution model for oil released during subsea dispersant applications in June with 74% of the mass in >1 mm droplets that surfaced near the spill site within a few hours, and 1-8% as <0.13 mm microdroplets that remained below 900 m.

Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills.

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach.

Oil fate and mass balance for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Based on oil fate modeling of the Deepwater Horizon spill through August 2010, during June and July 2010, ~89% of the oil surfaced, ~5% entered (by dissolving or as microdroplets) the deep plume (>900 m), and ~6% dissolved and biodegraded between 900 m and 40 m. Subsea dispersant application reduced surfacing oil by ~7% and evaporation of volatiles by ~26%. By July 2011, of the total oil, ~41% evaporated, ~15% was ashore and in nearshore (<10 m) sediments, ~3% was removed by responders, ~38.

Sensitivity of modeled oil fate and exposure from a subsea blowout to oil droplet sizes, depth, dispersant use, and degradation rates.

As part of a Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) developed and reported previously, oil spill modeling of a hypothetical blowout at 1400 m in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico was performed to evaluate changes in oil exposures with alternative response options, i.e., combinations of mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, surface dispersant application and subsea dispersant injection (SSDI).

Modeling atmospheric volatile organic compound concentrations resulting from a deepwater oil well blowout - Mitigation by subsea dispersant injection.

The atmospheric concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) generated by surface slicks during an oil spill have not been extensively studied. We modeled oil transport and fate, air emissions, and atmospheric dispersion of VOCs from a hypothetical deepwater well blowout in De Soto Canyon of the Gulf of Mexico assuming no intervention and use of SubSea Dispersant Injection (SSDI) at the source during three week-long periods representing different atmospheric mixing conditions. Spatially varying time histories of atmospheric VOCs within ~2 km from the release site were estimated.

Comparative risk assessment of oil spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part II. Relative risk methodology.

Subsea dispersant injection (SSDI) was a new oil spill response (OSR) technology deployed during the Deepwater Horizon accident. To integrate SSDI into future OSR decisions, a hypothetical deepwater oil spill to the Gulf of Mexico was simulated and a comparative risk assessment (CRA) tool applied to contrast three response strategies: (1) no intervention; (2) mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, and surface dispersants; and, (3) SSDI in addition to responses in (2). A comparative ecological risk assessment (CRA) was applied to multiple valued ecosystem components (VECs) inhabiting different environmental compartments (ECs) using EC-specific exposure and relative VEC population density and recovery time indices.

Comparative Risk Assessment of spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part 1. Oil spill modeling.

Oil spill model simulations of a deepwater blowout in the Gulf of Mexico De Soto Canyon, assuming no intervention and various response options (i.e., subsea dispersant injection SSDI, in addition to mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, and surface dispersant application) were compared.

Comparative risk assessment of spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part III. Stakeholder engagement.

This paper describes oil spill stakeholder engagement in a recent comparative risk assessment (CRA) project that examined the tradeoffs associated with a hypothetical offshore well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico, with a specific focus on subsea dispersant injection (SSDI) at the wellhead. SSDI is a new technology deployed during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill response. Oil spill stakeholders include decision makers, who will consider whether to integrate SSDI into future tradeoff decisions.

Photochemical oxidation reduced the efficacy of aerial dispersants applied in response to the spill.

Chemical dispersants are one of many tools used to mitigate the overall environmental impact of oil spills. In principle, dispersants break up floating oil into small droplets that disperse into the water column where they are subject to multiple fate and transport processes. The effectiveness of dispersants typically decreases as oil weathers in the environment.

Partial Photochemical Oxidation Was a Dominant Fate of Deepwater Horizon Surface Oil.

Following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout in 2010, oil floated on the Gulf of Mexico for over 100 days. In the aftermath of the blowout, substantial accumulation of partially oxidized surface oil was reported, but the pathways that formed these oxidized residues are poorly constrained. Here we provide five quantitative lines of evidence demonstrating that oxidation by sunlight largely accounts for the partially oxidized surface oil.

Potential impacts of offshore oil spills on polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.

Sea ice decline is anticipated to increase human access to the Arctic Ocean allowing for offshore oil and gas development in once inaccessible areas. Given the potential negative consequences of an oil spill on marine wildlife populations in the Arctic, it is important to understand the magnitude of impact a large spill could have on wildlife to inform response planning efforts. In this study we simulated oil spills that released 25,000 barrels of oil for 30 days in autumn originating from two sites in the Chukchi Sea (one in Russia and one in the U.

Application of an Integrated Blowout Model System, OILMAP DEEP, to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Spill.

OILMAP DEEP, an integrated system of models (pipeline release, blowout plume, dispersant treatment, oil droplet size distribution, and fountain and intrusion), was applied to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill to predict the near field transport and fate of the oil and gas released into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The model included multiple, time dependent releases from both the kink and riser, with the observed subsurface dispersant treatment, that characterized the DWH spill and response. The blowout model predictions are in good agreement with the available observations for plume trapping height and the major characteristics of the intrusion layer.

An algorithm for modeling entrainment and naturally and chemically dispersed oil droplet size distribution under surface breaking wave conditions.

A surface oil entrainment model and droplet size model have been developed to estimate the flux of oil under surface breaking waves. Both equations are expressed in dimensionless Weber number (We) and Ohnesorge number (Oh, which explicitly accounts for the oil viscosity, density, and oil-water interfacial tension). Data from controlled lab studies, large-scale wave tank tests, and field observations have been used to calibrate the constants of the two independent equations.

Development of a unified oil droplet size distribution model with application to surface breaking waves and subsea blowout releases considering dispersant effects.

An oil droplet size model was developed for a variety of turbulent conditions based on non-dimensional analysis of disruptive and restorative forces, which is applicable to oil droplet formation under both surface breaking-wave and subsurface-blowout conditions, with or without dispersant application. This new model was calibrated and successfully validated with droplet size data obtained from controlled laboratory studies of dispersant-treated and non-treated oil in subsea dispersant tank tests and field surveys, including the Deep Spill experimental release and the Deepwater Horizon blowout oil spill. This model is an advancement over prior models, as it explicitly addresses the effects of the dispersed phase viscosity, resulting from dispersant application and constrains the maximum stable droplet size based on Rayleigh-Taylor instability that is invoked for a release from a large aperture.

Oil spill impact modeling: development and validation.

A coupled oil fate and effects model has been developed for the estimation of impacts to habitats, wildlife, and aquatic organisms resulting from acute exposure to spilled oil. The physical fates model estimates the distribution of oil (as mass and concentrations) on the water surface, on shorelines, in the water column, and in the sediments, accounting for spreading, evaporation, transport, dispersion, emulsification, entrainment, dissolution, volatilization, partitioning, sedimentation, and degradation. The biological effects model estimates exposure of biota of various behavior types to floating oil and subsurface contamination, resulting percent mortality, and sublethal effects on production (somatic growth).

Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil.

Methods were developed to estimate the potential impacts and natural resource damages resulting from oil spills using probabilistic modeling techniques. The oil fates model uses wind data, current data, and transport and weathering algorithms to calculate mass balance of fuel components in various environmental compartments (water surface, shoreline, water column, atmosphere, sediments, etc.), oil pathway over time (trajectory), surface distribution, shoreline oiling, and concentrations of the fuel components in water and sediments.

Development and application of damage assessment modeling: example assessment for the North Cape oil spill.

Natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) models for oil spills have been under development since 1984. Generally applicable (simplified) versions with built-in data sets are included in US government regulations for NRDAs in US waters. The most recent version of these models is SIMAP (Spill Impact Model Application Package), which contains oil fates and effects models that may be applied to any spill event and location in marine or freshwater environments.

Development and application of an oil toxicity and exposure model, OilToxEx.

An oil toxicity and exposure model (OilToxEx) was developed and validated for estimation of impacts to aquatic organisms resulting from acute exposure to spilled oil. Because oil exposure is shorter than the time required for equilibrium between the organism and the water to be reached, the time and temperature dependence of toxicity is addressed. Oil toxicity is a function of aromatic composition and the toxicity of individual aromatics in the mixture.