Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle.

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches.

SAfE transport: wearing face masks significantly reduces the spread of COVID-19 on trains.

COVID-19 has had a substantial impact globally. It spreads readily, particularly in enclosed and crowded spaces, such as public transport carriages, yet there are limited studies on how this risk can be reduced. We developed a tool for exploring the potential impacts of mitigation strategies on public transport networks, called the Systems Analytics for Epidemiology in Transport (SAfE Transport).

Timely surveillance and temporal calibration of disease response against human infectious diseases.

Background: Disease surveillance and response are critical components of epidemic preparedness. The disease response, in most cases, is a set of reactive measures that follow the outcomes of the disease surveillance. Hence, timely surveillance is a prerequisite for an effective response.

Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk.

Background: Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations.

A general trait-based modelling framework for revealing patterns of airborne fungal dispersal threats to agriculture and native flora.

Fungal plant pathogens are of economic and ecological importance to global agriculture and natural ecosystems. Long-distance atmospheric dispersal of fungal spores (LAD) can pose threats to agricultural and native vegetation lands. An understanding of such patterns of fungal spore dispersal and invasion pathways can provide valuable insights into plant protection.

Forecasting the probability of local dengue outbreaks in Queensland, Australia.

The global incidence of dengue is increasing, and many previously unaffected areas have reported local cases of the vector-borne disease in recent years. For the effective containment of local outbreaks health authorities rely on the prompt notification of new cases. However, due to severe under-reporting and misdiagnosis, non-endemic countries face difficulties in containing local outbreaks, and the possibility of dengue becoming endemic.

Vaccination strategies on dynamic networks with indirect transmission links and limited contact information.

Infectious diseases are still a major global burden for modern society causing 13 million deaths annually. One way to reduce the morbidity and mortality rates from infectious diseases is through pre-emptive or targeted vaccinations. Current theoretical vaccination strategies based on contact networks, however, rely on highly specific individual contact information which is difficult and costly to obtain, in order to identify influential spreading individuals.

Parameter estimation for functional-structural plant models when data are scarce: using multiple patterns for rejecting unsuitable parameter sets.

Background And Aims: Functional-structural plant (FSP) models provide insights into the complex interactions between plant architecture and underlying developmental mechanisms. However, parameter estimation of FSP models remains challenging. We therefore used pattern-oriented modelling (POM) to test whether parameterization of FSP models can be made more efficient, systematic and powerful.

A global model for predicting the arrival of imported dengue infections.

With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by importing the disease from endemic into non-endemic countries. To prevent future outbreaks and dengue from establishing in non-endemic countries, knowledge about the arrival time and location of infected travellers is crucial.

Modeling stochastic processes in disease spread across a heterogeneous social system.

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is challenging due to invisible infection pathways and time-evolving intensity of infection cases. Here, we propose a new diffusion framework for stochastic processes, which models disease spread across metapopulations by incorporating human mobility as topological pathways in a heterogeneous social system.

Native turncoats and indirect facilitation of species invasions.

At local scales, native species can resist invasion by feeding on and competing with would-be invasive species. However, this relationship tends to break down or reverse at larger scales. Here, we consider the role of native species as indirect facilitators of invasion and their potential role in this diversity-driven 'invasion paradox'.

Pesticide-mediated interspecific competition between local and invasive thrips pests.

Competitive interactions between species can be mitigated or even reversed in the presence of anthropogenic influences. The thrips species Frankliniella occidentalis and Thrips tabaci are highly invasive and damaging agricultural pests throughout the world. Where the species co-occur, one species tends to eventually predominate over the other.

Global threat to agriculture from invasive species.

Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns.

Birds of a feather: using species assemblages to assess vulnerability to extinction.

Estimating extinction vulnerability for a large number of species presents significant challenges for researchers, but is of high importance considering the large number of species that are currently unassessed. We present a method using a type of artificial neural network (self organizing map; SOM), which utilizes the co-occurrence patterns of species to estimate each species' vulnerability to extinction. We use this method on Australian bird assemblages and compare the SOM-generated rankings for vulnerability with assessments from the IUCN Red List for those species in which populations have actually been estimated.

Quantifying the Establishment Likelihood of Invasive Alien Species Introductions Through Ports with Application to Honeybees in Australia.

The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port-specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry.

Global establishment risk of economically important fruit fly species (Tephritidae).

The global invasion of Tephritidae (fruit flies) attracts a great deal of attention in the field of plant quarantine and invasion biology because of their economic importance. Predicting which one in hundreds of potential invasive fruit fly species is most likely to establish in a region presents a significant challenge, but can be facilitated using a self organising map (SOM), which is able to analyse species associations to rank large numbers of species simultaneously with an index of establishment. A global presence/absence dataset including 180 economically significant fruit fly species in 118 countries was analysed using a SOM.

The role of global trade and transport network topology in the human-mediated dispersal of alien species.

More people and goods are moving further and more frequently via many different trade and transport networks under current trends of globalisation. These networks can play a major role in the unintended introduction of exotic species to new locations. With the continuing rise in global trade, more research attention is being focused on the role of networks in the spread of invasive species.

Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds?

Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM) approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region.

Modelling the arrival of invasive organisms via the international marine shipping network: a Khapra beetle study.

Species can sometimes spread significant distances beyond their natural dispersal ability by anthropogenic means. International shipping routes and the transport of shipping containers, in particular are a commonly recognised pathway for the introduction of invasive species. Species can gain access to a shipping container and remain inside, hidden and undetected for long periods.

Biosecurity and yield improvement technologies are strategic complements in the fight against food insecurity.

The delivery of food security via continued crop yield improvement alone is not an effective food security strategy, and must be supported by pre- and post-border biosecurity policies to guard against perverse outcomes. In the wake of the green revolution, yield gains have been in steady decline, while post-harvest crop losses have increased as a result of insufficiently resourced and uncoordinated efforts to control spoilage throughout global transport and storage networks. This paper focuses on the role that biosecurity is set to play in future food security by preventing both pre- and post-harvest losses, thereby protecting crop yield.

Predicting invasive fungal pathogens using invasive pest assemblages: testing model predictions in a virtual world.

Predicting future species invasions presents significant challenges to researchers and government agencies. Simply considering the vast number of potential species that could invade an area can be insurmountable. One method, recently suggested, which can analyse large datasets of invasive species simultaneously is that of a self organising map (SOM), a form of artificial neural network which can rank species by establishment likelihood.