Innovations, adaptations, and accelerations in the delivery of HIV services during COVID-19.

During 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the delivery of HIV prevention and treatment services globally. To mitigate the negative consequences of the pandemic, service providers and communities adapted and accelerated an array of HIV interventions to meet the needs of people living with HIV and people at risk of acquiring HIV in diverse geographical and epidemiological settings. As a result of these adaptations, services such as HIV treatment showed programmatic resilience and remained relatively stable in 2020 and into the first half of 2021.

Scenario-driven forecasting: modeling peaks and paths. Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium.

The recent 'outburst' of COVID-19 spurred efforts to model and forecast its diffusion patterns, either in terms of infections, people in need of medical assistance (ICU occupation) or casualties. Forecasting patterns and their implied end states remains cumbersome when few (stochastic) data points are available during the early stage of diffusion processes. Extrapolations based on compounded growth rates do not account for inflection points nor end-states.

Predicting patient nurse-level intensity for a subsequent shift in the intensive care unit: A single-centre prospective observational study.

Background: A dynamic optimized nurse staffing model for the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), requires a tool for monitoring nurse-level intensity with validated cut-offs to identify patients requiring 1:1, 2:1 or 3:1 patient-to-nurse ratios.

Objectives: We aimed to determine the Nursing Activities Score (NAS) cut-off values which can best distinguish between high, average and lower nurse-level intensity as unanimously perceived by care providers, and to evaluate whether these NAS cut-offs allow to predict nurse-level intensity in the next shift or the same shift the next day.

Design: A prospective observational study.

Assessing the impact of antiretroviral therapy on tuberculosis notification rates among people with HIV: a descriptive analysis of 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2015.

Background: HIV is a major driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. The population-level impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up on tuberculosis rates in this region has not been well studied. We conducted a descriptive analysis to examine evidence of population-level effect of ART on tuberculosis by comparing trends in estimated tuberculosis notification rates, by HIV status, for countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Risk of travel-related cases of Zika virus infection is predicted by transmission intensity in outbreak-affected countries.

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is emerging globally, currently causing outbreaks in the Caribbean, and Central and South America, and putting travellers to affected countries at risk. Model-based estimates for the basic reproduction number (R ) of ZIKV in affected Caribbean and Central and South American countries, obtained from 2015 to 2016 human case surveillance data, were compared by logistic regression and Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC), with the prevalence of ZIKV-positive test results in Canadians who travelled to them.

Results: Estimates of R for each country were a good predictor of the ZIKV test result (ROC area under the curve = 0.

Secondary Infections with Ebola Virus in Rural Communities, Liberia and Guinea, 2014-2015.

Persons who died of Ebola virus disease at home in rural communities in Liberia and Guinea resulted in more secondary infections than persons admitted to Ebola treatment units. Intensified monitoring of contacts of persons who died of this disease in the community is an evidence-based approach to reduce virus transmission in rural communities.

Decreased Ebola Transmission after Rapid Response to Outbreaks in Remote Areas, Liberia, 2014.

We measured the reproduction number before and after interventions were implemented to reduce Ebola transmission in 9 outbreaks in Liberia during 2014. We evaluated risk factors for secondary cases and the association between patient admission to an Ebola treatment unit (ETU) and survival. The reproduction number declined 94% from 1.

Rapid response to Ebola outbreaks in remote areas - Liberia, July-November 2014.

West Africa is experiencing its first epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola). As of February 9, Liberia has reported 8,864 Ebola cases, of which 3,147 were laboratory-confirmed. Beginning in August 2014, the Liberia Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW), supported by CDC, the World Health Organization (WHO), and others, began systematically investigating and responding to Ebola outbreaks in remote areas.

Implementation of Ebola case-finding using a village chieftaincy taskforce in a remote outbreak - Liberia, 2014.

On October 16, 2014, a woman aged 48 years traveled from Monrovia, Liberia, to the Kayah region of Rivercess County, a remote, resource-poor, and sparsely populated region of Liberia, and died on October 21 with symptoms compatible with Ebola virus disease (Ebola). She was buried in accordance with local tradition, which included grooming, touching, and kissing the body by family and other community members while it was being prepared for burial. During October 24-November 12, eight persons with probable and 13 with confirmed Ebola epidemiologically linked to the deceased woman had onset of symptoms.

Mortality trends from 2003 to 2009 among adolescents and young adults in rural Western Kenya using a health and demographic surveillance system.

Background: Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required.

Methods And Findings: This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15-19 years) and young adults (20-24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes.

Profile: the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System--Western Kenya.

The KEMRI/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) is located in Rarieda, Siaya and Gem Districts (Siaya County), lying northeast of Lake Victoria in Nyanza Province, western Kenya. The KEMRI/CDC HDSS, with approximately 220 000 inhabitants, has been the foundation for a variety of studies, including evaluations of insecticide-treated bed nets, burden of diarrhoeal disease and tuberculosis, malaria parasitaemia and anaemia, treatment strategies and immunological correlates of malaria infection, and numerous HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and diarrhoeal disease treatment and vaccine efficacy and effectiveness trials for more than a decade. Current studies include operations research to measure the uptake and effectiveness of the programmatic implementation of integrated malaria control strategies, HIV services, newly introduced vaccines and clinical trials.

The use of epidemiological data to inform the PEPFAR response.

The history of the HIV epidemic and the response to the epidemic is fundamentally a history of an emergency response to a global crisis. Trends and projections from initially available data were instrumental in establishing the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and in determining the direction of the program. Additionally, PEPFAR was built on data and the potential impact of interventions, and required the constant monitoring of the epidemic to report on the progress of the program.

High prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis and inadequate case finding in rural western Kenya.

Rationale: Limited information exists on the prevalence of tuberculosis and adequacy of case finding in African populations with high rates of HIV.

Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and the fraction attributable to HIV, and to evaluate case detection.

Methods: Residents aged 15 years and older, from 40 randomly sampled clusters, provided two sputum samples for microscopy; those with chest radiograph abnormalities or symptoms suggestive of PTB provided one additional sputum sample for culture.

Laboratory systems and services are critical in global health: time to end the neglect?

The $63 billion comprehensive global health initiative (GHI) emphasizes health systems strengthening (HSS) to tackle challenges, including child and maternal health, HIV/AIDS, family planning, and neglected tropical diseases. GHI and other initiatives are critical to fighting emerging and reemerging diseases in resource-poor countries. HSS is also an increasing focus of the $49 billion program of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.

The spread, treatment, and prevention of HIV-1: evolution of a global pandemic.

The most up-to-date estimates demonstrate very heterogeneous spread of HIV-1, and more than 30 million people are now living with HIV-1 infection, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The efficiency of transmission of HIV-1 depends primarily on the concentration of the virus in the infectious host. Although treatment with antiviral agents has proven a very effective way to improve the health and survival of infected individuals, as we discuss here, the epidemic will continue to grow unless greatly improved prevention strategies can be developed and implemented.

Workgroup report: public health strategies for reducing aflatoxin exposure in developing countries.

Consecutive outbreaks of acute aflatoxicosis in Kenya in 2004 and 2005 caused > 150 deaths. In response, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization convened a workgroup of international experts and health officials in Geneva, Switzerland, in July 2005. After discussions concerning what is known about aflatoxins, the workgroup identified gaps in current knowledge about acute and chronic human health effects of aflatoxins, surveillance and food monitoring, analytic methods, and the efficacy of intervention strategies.

Health and demographic surveillance in rural western Kenya: a platform for evaluating interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases.

We established a health and demographic surveillance system in a rural area of western Kenya to measure the burden of infectious diseases and evaluate public health interventions. After a baseline census, all 33,990 households were visited every four months. We collected data on educational attainment, socioeconomic status, pediatric outpatient visits, causes of death in children, and malaria transmission.

Case-control study of an acute aflatoxicosis outbreak, Kenya, 2004.

Objectives: During January-June 2004, an aflatoxicosis outbreak in eastern Kenya resulted in 317 cases and 125 deaths. We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for contamination of implicated maize and, for the first time, quantitated biomarkers associated with acute aflatoxicosis.

Design: We administered questionnaires regarding maize storage and consumption and obtained maize and blood samples from participants.