Universal predictability of large avalanches in the Manna sandpile model.

Substantiated explanations of the unpredictability regarding sandpile models of self-organized criticality (SOC) gave way to efficient forecasts of extremes in a few models. The appearance of extremes requires a preparation phase that ends with general overloading of the system and spatial clustering of the local stress. Here, we relate the predictability of large events to the system volume in the Manna and Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpiles, which are basic models of SOC.