Multi-model chain for climate change scenario analysis to support coastal erosion and water quality risk management for the Metropolitan city of Venice.

Under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, hazardous climate and weather events are increasing in frequency and severity, with wide-ranging impacts across ecosystems and landscapes, especially fragile and dynamic coastal zones. The presented multi-model chain approach combines ocean hydrodynamics, wave fields, and shoreline extraction models to build a Bayesian Network-based coastal risk assessment model for the future analysis of shoreline evolution and seawater quality (i.e.

Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries.

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on a 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that the 2022 hydrological drought is the worst event (30% lower than the second worst, with a six-century return period), part of an increasing trend in severe drought occurrence. The decline in summer river flows (-4.

ITCZ shift and extratropical teleconnections drive ENSO response to volcanic eruptions.

The mechanisms through which volcanic eruptions affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state are still controversial. Previous studies have invoked direct radiative forcing, an ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism, and shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), among others, to explain the ENSO response to tropical eruptions. Here, these mechanisms are tested using ensemble simulations with an Earth system model in which volcanic aerosols from a Tambora-like eruption are confined either in the Northern or the Southern Hemisphere.

On the interchangeability of sea-surface and near-surface air temperature anomalies in climatologies.

On global and hemispheric scales, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are assumed to be good surrogates for near-surface marine air temperature (MAT) anomalies. In fact, global gridded temperature datasets commonly blend SST and near-surface air temperature anomalies to overcome the lack of geographically homogeneous and reliable MAT observations. Here, we show that SST and MAT anomalies differ regarding crucial statistical properties such as multiannual trends and probabilistic distributions of daily and monthly averages.

Experimental evidence of long-term oceanic circulation reversals without wind influence in the North Ionian Sea.

Under the emerging features of interannual-to-decadal ocean variability, the periodical reversals of the North Ionian Gyre (NIG), driven mostly by the mechanism named Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), are known as impacting on marine physics and biogeochemistry and potentially influencing short-term regional climate predictability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Whilst it has been suggested that local wind forcing cannot explain such variability, aspects of the alternative hypothesis indicating that NIG reversals mainly arises from an internal ocean feedback mechanism alone remain largely debated. Here we demonstrate, using the results of physical experiments, performed in the world's largest rotating tank and numerical simulations, that the main observed feature of BiOS, i.

Initiation of a stable convective hydroclimatic regime in Central America circa 9000 years BP.

Many Holocene hydroclimate records show rainfall changes that vary with local orbital insolation. However, some tropical regions display rainfall evolution that differs from gradual precessional pacing, suggesting that direct rainfall forcing effects were predominantly driven by sea-surface temperature thresholds or inter-ocean temperature gradients. Here we present a 12,000 yr continuous U/Th-dated precipitation record from a Guatemalan speleothem showing that Central American rainfall increased within a 2000 yr period from a persistently dry state to an active convective regime at 9000 yr BP and has remained strong thereafter.

Atlantic origin of asynchronous European interdecadal hydroclimate variability.

Discharge time series of major large-catchment European rivers are known to display significant decadal and interdecadal fluctuations. However, the hydroclimate variability causing such fluctuations remains poorly understood, particularly due to a lack of a spatio-temporal integrated assessment. Here, we demonstrate for the first time that European hydroclimate variability is dominated by a meridional delayed oscillation characterized by a lag of approximately 5 years in interdecadal discharge fluctuations of continental (northern) European rivers with respect to those of Euro-Mediterranean (southern) rivers.

Tidal Records as Liquid Climate Archives for Large-Scale Interior Mediterranean Variability.

Characterization of interior ocean variability is necessary for understanding climate. Water mass evolution shapes ocean-atmosphere interactions and contributes to determine timescales for global and regional climate variability. However, a robust assessment of past state and variability of the ocean interior is prevented by sparseness/shortness of historical subsurface observations and uncertainties affecting proxy-based reconstructions.

Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach.

Decadal climate predictions use initialized coupled model simulations that are typically affected by a drift toward a biased climatology determined by systematic model errors. Model drifts thus reflect a fundamental source of uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. However, their analysis has so far relied on ad-hoc assessments of empirical and subjective character.

Winter amplification of the European Little Ice Age cooling by the subpolar gyre.

Climate reconstructions reveal a strong winter amplification of the cooling over central and northern continental Europe during the Little Ice Age period (LIA, here defined as c. 16th-18th centuries) via persistent, blocked atmospheric conditions. Although various potential drivers have been suggested to explain the LIA cooling, no coherent mechanism has yet been proposed for this seasonal contrast.

Biogeochemical, Isotopic and Bacterial Distributions Trace Oceanic Abyssal Circulation.

We explore the possibility of tracing routes of dense waters toward and within the ocean abyss by the use of an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters. To this purpose, we employ mercury, isotopic oxygen, biopolymeric carbon and its constituents, together with indicators of microbial activity and bacterial diversity found in bottom waters of the Eastern Mediterranean. In this basin, which has been considered as a miniature global ocean, two competing sources of bottom water (one in the Adriatic and one in the Aegean seas) contribute to the ventilation of the local abyss.

Marine Sediments Remotely Unveil Long-Term Climatic Variability Over Northern Italy.

A deep understanding of natural decadal variability is pivotal to discuss recently observed climate trends. Paleoclimate proxies allow reconstructing natural variations before the instrumental period. Typically, regional-scale reconstructions depend on factors like dating, multi-proxy weighting and calibration, which may lead to non-robust reconstructions.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations.