Shipping costs and inflation.

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of global shipping costs-measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)-on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations.

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes.

Background: Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level.

Objective: Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes.

Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics.

Unlabelled: This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.

The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity.

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity-nitrogen dioxide (NO) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices-for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher.

The impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic.

Rising temperature levels during spring and summer are often argued to enable lifting of strict containment measures even in the absence of herd immunity. Despite broad scholarly interest in the relationship between weather and coronavirus spread, previous studies come to very mixed results. To contribute to this puzzle, the paper examines the impact of weather on the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique granular dataset of over 1.

Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data.

The recent COVID-19 crisis has generated a concern that productivity (which was already at historically low levels) may further decline. From a theoretical standpoint, the recessions-total factor productivity (TFP) nexus is ambiguous . This paper empirically examines the dynamic impact of recessions on TFP.

Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States.

This paper analyzes alternative channels of adjustment to nominal exchange rate flexibility in response to shocks faced by countries and regions that are part of a monetary union. Over our full sample period of analysis (1977-2018), the results suggest a dominant role of interstate migration as an adjustment channel to labor demand shocks for the United States. In contrast, European countries tend to adjust to negative labor demand shocks mainly through changes in labor force participation and unemployment.

Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries.

The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963-2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.