Signature of the western boundary currents in local climate variability.

The western boundary currents are characterized by narrow, intense ocean jets and are among the most energetic phenomena in the world ocean. The importance of the western boundary currents to the mean climate is well established: they transport vast quantities of heat from the subtropics to the midlatitudes, and they govern the structure of the climatological mean surface winds, precipitation and extratropical storm tracks. Their importance to climate variability is much less clear, as the tropospheric response to extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability is generally modest relative to the internal variability in the midlatitude atmosphere.

Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature.

In 1967, scientists used a simple climate model to predict that human-caused increases in atmospheric CO should warm Earth's troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This important signature of anthropogenic climate change has been documented in weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements extending from near-surface to the lower stratosphere. Stratospheric cooling has also been confirmed in the mid to upper stratosphere, a layer extending from roughly 25 to 50 km above the Earth's surface (S).

Phase Unlocking and the Modulation of Tropopause-Level Trace Gas Advection by the Quasibiennial Oscillation.

Open questions about the modulation of near-surface trace gas variability by stratosphere-troposphere tracer transport complicate efforts to identify anthropogenic sources of gases such as CFC-11 and NO and disentangle them from dynamical influences. In this study, we explore one model's modulation of lower stratospheric tracer advection by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal winds at 50 hPa. We assess instances of coherent modulation versus disruption through phase unlocking with the seasonal cycle in the model and in observations.

Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change.

Climate change has been and will be accompanied by widespread changes in surface temperature. It is clear that these changes include global-wide increases in mean surface temperature and changes in temperature variance that are more regionally-dependent. It is less clear whether they also include changes in the persistence of surface temperature.

On the effects of the ocean on atmospheric CFC-11 lifetimes and emissions.

The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg ⋅ yr after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime).

Revisiting the mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends.

Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979-2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are compared with recently updated and extended satellite observations. The multi-model mean global temperature trends over 1979- 2005 are -0.88 ± 0.

The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation.

We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes.

Thermodynamic constraint on the depth of the global tropospheric circulation.

The troposphere is the region of the atmosphere characterized by low static stability, vigorous diabatic mixing, and widespread condensational heating in clouds. Previous research has argued that in the tropics, the upper bound on tropospheric mixing and clouds is constrained by the rapid decrease with height of the saturation water vapor pressure and hence radiative cooling by water vapor in clear-sky regions. Here the authors contend that the same basic physics play a key role in constraining the vertical structure of tropospheric mixing, tropopause temperature, and cloud-top temperature throughout the globe.

Periodic variability in the large-scale Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation.

Periodic behavior in the climate system has important implications not only for weather prediction but also for understanding and interpreting the physical processes that drive climate variability. Here we demonstrate that the large-scale Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation exhibits marked periodicity on time scales of approximately 20 to 30 days. The periodicity is tied to the Southern Hemisphere baroclinic annular mode and emerges in hemispheric-scale averages of the eddy fluxes of heat, the eddy kinetic energy, and precipitation.

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends.

A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.

An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970.

The twentieth-century trend in global-mean surface temperature was not monotonic: temperatures rose from the start of the century to the 1940s, fell slightly during the middle part of the century, and rose rapidly from the mid-1970s onwards. The warming-cooling-warming pattern of twentieth-century temperatures is typically interpreted as the superposition of long-term warming due to increasing greenhouse gases and either cooling due to a mid-twentieth century increase of sulphate aerosols in the troposphere, or changes in the climate of the world's oceans that evolve over decades (oscillatory multidecadal variability). Loadings of sulphate aerosol in the troposphere are thought to have had a particularly important role in the differences in temperature trends between the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the decades following the Second World War.

A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature.

Data sets used to monitor the Earth's climate indicate that the surface of the Earth warmed from approximately 1910 to 1940, cooled slightly from approximately 1940 to 1970, and then warmed markedly from approximately 1970 onward. The weak cooling apparent in the middle part of the century has been interpreted in the context of a variety of physical factors, such as atmosphere-ocean interactions and anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols. Here we call attention to a previously overlooked discontinuity in the record at 1945, which is a prominent feature of the cooling trend in the mid-twentieth century.

Contrasts between Antarctic and Arctic ozone depletion.

This work surveys the depth and character of ozone depletion in the Antarctic and Arctic using available long balloon-borne and ground-based records that cover multiple decades from ground-based sites. Such data reveal changes in the range of ozone values including the extremes observed as polar air passes over the stations. Antarctic ozone observations reveal widespread and massive local depletion in the heart of the ozone "hole" region near 18 km, frequently exceeding 90%.

Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change.

Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.

Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts.

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause.

Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change.

Climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by the SH annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex. We present evidence that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. It is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses.