ONeSAMP 3.0: estimation of effective population size via single nucleotide polymorphism data from one population.

The genetic effective size (Ne) is arguably one of the most important characteristics of a population as it impacts the rate of loss of genetic diversity. Methods that estimate Ne are important in population and conservation genetic studies as they quantify the risk of a population being inbred or lacking genetic diversity. Yet there are very few methods that can estimate the Ne from data from a single population and without extensive information about the genetics of the population, such as a linkage map, or a reference genome of the species of interest.

Alternative life-history strategy contributions to effective population size in a naturally spawning salmon population.

Alternative life-history tactics are predicted to affect within-population genetic processes but have received little attention. For example, the impact of precocious males on effective population size ( ) has not been quantified directly in Pacific salmon spp., even though they can make up a large percentage of the total male spawners.

Reproductive success of jack and full-size males in a wild coho salmon population.

Despite the wealth of research on Pacific salmon spp. life histories there is limited understanding of the lifetime reproductive success of males that spend less time at sea and mature at a smaller size (jacks) than full-size males. Over half of returning male spawners can be jacks in some populations, so it is crucial to understand their contribution to population productivity.

The crucial role of genome-wide genetic variation in conservation.

The unprecedented rate of extinction calls for efficient use of genetics to help conserve biodiversity. Several recent genomic and simulation-based studies have argued that the field of conservation biology has placed too much focus on conserving genome-wide genetic variation, and that the field should instead focus on managing the subset of functional genetic variation that is thought to affect fitness. Here, we critically evaluate the feasibility and likely benefits of this approach in conservation.

Environmental DNA for the enumeration and management of Pacific salmon.

Pacific salmon are a keystone resource in Alaska, generating annual revenues of well over ~US$500 million/year. Due to their anadromous life history, adult spawners distribute amongst thousands of streams, posing a huge management challenge. Currently, spawners are enumerated at just a few streams because of reliance on human counters and, rarely, sonar.

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska.

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams.

Genetic rescue to the rescue.

Genetic rescue can increase the fitness of small, imperiled populations via immigration. A suite of studies from the past decade highlights the value of genetic rescue in increasing population fitness. Nonetheless, genetic rescue has not been widely applied to conserve many of the threatened populations that it could benefit.

Combined genetic and telemetry data reveal high rates of gene flow, migration, and long-distance dispersal potential in Arctic ringed seals (Pusa hispida).

Ringed seals (Pusa hispida) are broadly distributed in seasonally ice covered seas, and their survival and reproductive success is intricately linked to sea ice and snow. Climatic warming is diminishing Arctic snow and sea ice and threatens to endanger ringed seals in the foreseeable future. We investigated the population structure and connectedness within and among three subspecies: Arctic (P.

Simple life-history traits explain key effective population size ratios across diverse taxa.

Effective population size (Ne) controls both the rate of random genetic drift and the effectiveness of selection and migration, but it is difficult to estimate in nature. In particular, for species with overlapping generations, it is easier to estimate the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb) than Ne per generation. We empirically evaluated the relationship between life history and ratios of Ne, Nb and adult census size (N) using a recently developed model (agene) and published vital rates for 63 iteroparous animals and plants.

Temporal patterns of genetic variation in a salmon population undergoing rapid change in migration timing.

Though genetic diversity is necessary for population persistence in rapidly changing environments, little is known about how climate-warming influences patterns of intra-population genetic variation. For a pink salmon population experiencing increasing temperatures, we used temporal genetic data (microsatellite = 1993, 2001, 2009; allozyme = 1979, 1981, 1983) to quantify the genetic effective population size ( ) and genetic divergence due to differences in migration timing and to estimate whether these quantities have changed over time. We predicted that temporal trends toward earlier migration timing and a corresponding loss of phenotypic variation would decrease genetic divergence based on migration timing and .

Earlier migration timing, decreasing phenotypic variation, and biocomplexity in multiple salmonid species.

Climate-induced phenological shifts can influence population, evolutionary, and ecological dynamics, but our understanding of these phenomena is hampered by a lack of long-term demographic data. We use a multi-decade census of 5 salmonid species representing 14 life histories in a warming Alaskan stream to address the following key questions about climate change and phenology: How consistent are temporal patterns and drivers of phenology for similar species and alternative life histories? Are shifts in phenology associated with changes in phenotypic variation? How do phenological changes influence the availability of resource subsidies? For most salmonid species, life stages, and life histories, freshwater temperature influences migration timing--migration events are occurring earlier in time (mean = 1.7 days earlier per decade over the 3-5 decades), and the number of days over which migration events occur is decreasing (mean = 1.

Genetic change for earlier migration timing in a pink salmon population.

To predict how climate change will influence populations, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms, particularly microevolution and phenotypic plasticity, that allow populations to persist in novel environmental conditions. Although evidence for climate-induced phenotypic change in populations is widespread, evidence documenting that these phenotypic changes are due to microevolution is exceedingly rare. In this study, we use 32 years of genetic data (17 complete generations) to determine whether there has been a genetic change towards earlier migration timing in a population of pink salmon that shows phenotypic change; average migration time occurs nearly two weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago.

Tributyltin contamination and imposex in Alaska harbors.

We quantified imposex in file dogwinkles (Nucella lima) and tributyltin (TBT) contamination in bay mussels (Mytilus trossulus) from 10 harbors and nearby control sites throughout Alaska. We found evidence of TBT contamination in mussels from four harbors (29-54 ng TBT/g wet tissue wt). Two of these harbors now show reduced TBT contamination relative to levels found in 1987.

Effects of the landscape on boreal toad gene flow: does the pattern-process relationship hold true across distinct landscapes at the northern range margin?

Understanding the impact of natural and anthropogenic landscape features on population connectivity is a major goal in evolutionary ecology and conservation. Discovery of dispersal barriers is important for predicting population responses to landscape and environmental changes, particularly for populations at geographic range margins. We used a landscape genetics approach to quantify the effects of landscape features on gene flow and connectivity of boreal toad (Bufo boreas) populations from two distinct landscapes in south-east Alaska (Admiralty Island, ANM, and the Chilkat River Valley, CRV).

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (N(e) ) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify the size and trend of stable or declining populations (true N = 100-10,000), using simulated Wright-Fisher populations. Neither method accurately or precisely estimated abundance at sample sizes of S = 30 individuals, regardless of true N.

tossm: an R package for assessing performance of genetic analytical methods in a management context.

tossm (Testing of Spatial Structure Methods) is a package for testing the performance of genetic analytical methods in a management context. In the tossm package, any method developed to detect population genetic structure can be combined with a mechanism for creating management units (MUs) based on the genetic analysis. The resulting Boundary-Setting Algorithm (BSA) dictates harvest boundaries with a genetic basis.

Long-term changes in imposex frequency in file dogwinkles, Nucella lima G., and tributyltin concentrations in bay mussels, Mytilus trossulus G.

We quantified imposex in file dogwinkles (Nucella lima) and tributyltin (TBT) contamination in bay mussels (Mytilus trossulus) from a number of sites in Auke Bay, Alaska, previously studied in the late 1980s. Imposex occurrence and TBT contamination have generally declined in spatial extent and severity over time. However, high levels of TBT contamination (0.

Background matching and color-change plasticity in colonizing freshwater sculpin populations following rapid deglaciation.

Anthropogenic-induced change is forcing organisms to shift their distributions and colonize novel habitats at an increasing rate, which leads to complex interactions among evolutionary processes. Coastrange sculpin (Cottus aleuticus) have colonized recently deglaciated streams of Glacier Bay in Alaska within the last 220 years. We examined divergence among populations in background matching coloration and tested the hypothesis that observed variation is due to morphological color plasticity.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS: onesamp: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation.

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, onesamp that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. onesamp requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters.

The alluring simplicity and complex reality of genetic rescue.

A series of important new theoretical, experimental and observational studies demonstrate that just a few immigrants can have positive immediate impacts on the evolutionary trajectory of local populations. In many cases, a low level of immigration into small populations has produced fitness benefits that are greater than those predicted by theoretical models, resulting in what has been termed 'genetic rescue'. However, the opposite result (reduced fitness) can also be associated with immigration of genetically divergent individuals.

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate bayesian computation.

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N(e)), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N(e) estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N(e). Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N(e) show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N(e) values.

The power and promise of population genomics: from genotyping to genome typing.

Population genomics has the potential to improve studies of evolutionary genetics, molecular ecology and conservation biology, by facilitating the identification of adaptive molecular variation and by improving the estimation of important parameters such as population size, migration rates and phylogenetic relationships. There has been much excitement in the recent literature about the identification of adaptive molecular variation using the population-genomic approach. However, the most useful contribution of the genomics model to population genetics will be improving inferences about population demography and evolutionary history.