Diagnostic transitions from childhood to adolescence to early adulthood.

Background: Quantifying diagnostic transitions across development is needed to estimate the long-term burden of mental illness. This study estimated patterns of diagnostic transitions from childhood to adolescence and from adolescence to early adulthood.

Methods: Patterns of diagnostic transitions were estimated using data from three prospective, longitudinal studies involving close to 20,000 observations of 3,722 participants followed across multiple developmental periods covering ages 9-30.

Synthesis through simulation: insights on the epidemiology of mood and anxiety disorders in Canada.

Objective: Prevalence estimates for mood and anxiety disorders in Canada are available, but various methodological approaches have produced inconsistent results. Simulation studies involve careful examination of available data by an expert modelling team working together with subject matter experts. Simulation can integrate datasets and literature-based estimates from various sources into a coherent mathematical representation of the underlying total population epidemiology.

Potential pediatric intensive care unit demand/capacity mismatch due to novel pH1N1 in Canada.

Objective: To investigate the possibility of pediatric intensive care unit shortfalls, using pandemic models for a range of attack rates and durations. The emergence of the swine origin pH1N1 virus has led to concerns about shortfalls in our ability to provide pediatric ventilation and critical care support.

Design: Modeling of pediatric intensive care demand based on pH1N1 predictions using simulation techniques.

Potential intensive care unit ventilator demand/capacity mismatch due to novel swine-origin H1N1 in Canada.

Purpose: To investigate the ability of Canadian intensive care units (ICUs) and ventilators to handle widespread re-emergence of the swine-origin H1N1 virus in the context of an aggressive strategy of vaccination.

Method: Data collected during the first wave in Winnipeg, Manitoba, were applied to a variety of second wave pandemic models to determine potential ICU and ventilator demand.

Results: For attack rates greater than 20% to 25%, significant shortages in ventilators may be expected across Canada regardless of the duration of the pandemic if vaccination is not considered.

Fine structure of dark matter halos and its effect on terrestrial detection experiments.

Terrestrial dark matter detection experiments probe the velocity-space distribution of dark matter particles in the vicinity of the Earth. We present a novel method, to be used in conjunction with standard cosmological simulations of hierarchical clustering, that allows one to extract a truly local velocity-space distribution in exquisite detail. Preliminary results suggest a new picture for this distribution which is decidedly non-Maxwellian but instead is characterized by randomly positioned peaks in velocity space.