The disutility of compartmental model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several forecasting models were released to predict the spread of the virus along variables vital for public health policymaking. Of these, the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model was the most common. In this paper, we investigated the forecasting performance of The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium SIR model.