Development, and Internal, and External Validation of a Scoring System to Predict 30-Day Mortality after Having a Traffic Accident Traveling by Private Car or Van: An Analysis of 164,790 Subjects and 79,664 Accidents.

Predictive factors for fatal traffic accidents have been determined, but not addressed collectively through a predictive model to help determine the probability of mortality and thereby ascertain key points for intervening and decreasing that probability. Data on all road traffic accidents with victims involving a private car or van occurring in Spain in 2015 (164,790 subjects and 79,664 accidents) were analyzed, evaluating 30-day mortality following the accident. As candidate predictors of mortality, variables associated with the accident (weekend, time, number of vehicles, road, brightness, and weather) associated with the vehicle (type and age of vehicle, and other types of vehicles in the accident) and associated with individuals (gender, age, seat belt, and position in the vehicle) were examined.

Clinical relevance of an intervention assessed by a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Objectives: Many meta-analyses usually omit the number needed to treat, or perform the calculation incorrectly, despite its importance in clinical decision-making. Accordingly, we will explain in an easily understandable way how to perform this procedure to assess the clinical relevance of the intervention.

Study Design And Setting: The expressions of the Cochrane Library and the concepts of clinical relevance and evidence-based medicine were applied.

A method to validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models to predict binary outcomes via a mobile application for Android with an example of a real case.

Background And Objectives: To use a points system based on a logistic regression model to predict a binary event in a given population, the validation of this system is necessary. The most correct way to do this is to calculate discrimination and calibration using bootstrapping. Discrimination can be addressed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration through the representation of the smoothed calibration plot (most recommended method).

A critical appraisal of the clinical applicability and risk of bias of the predictive models for mortality and recurrence in patients with oropharyngeal cancer: Systematic review.

The use of predictive models is becoming widespread. However, these models should be developed appropriately (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies [CHARMS] and Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool [PROBAST] statements). Concerning mortality/recurrence in oropharyngeal cancer, we are not aware of any systematic reviews of the predictive models.

A cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients previously admitted to hospital.

Background: Cardiovascular risk scales in hypertensive populations have limitations for clinical practice.

Aims: To develop and internally validate a predictive model to estimate one-year cardiovascular risk for hypertensive patients admitted to hospital.

Methods: Cohort study of 303 hypertensive patients admitted through the Emergency Department in a Spanish region in 2015-2017.

A scoring system to predict recurrence in breast cancer patients.

Objective: Current breast cancer recurrence prediction models have limitations for clinical practice (statistical methodology, simplicity and specific populations). We therefore developed a new model that overcomes these limitations.

Methods: This cohort study comprised 272 patients with breast cancer followed between 2003 and 2016.

A scoring system to predict recurrence in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer.

Objectives: Though predictive models have been constructed to determine the risk of recurrence in differentiated thyroid carcinoma, various aspects of these models are inadequate. Therefore, we aimed to construct, internally validate and implement on a mobile application a scoring system to determine this risk within 10 years.

Design: A retrospective cohort study in 1984-2016.

A scoring system to detect fixed airflow limitation in smokers from simple easy-to-use parameters.

No validated screening method currently exists for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in smokers. Therefore, we constructed a predictive model with simple parameters that can be applied for COPD screening to detect fixed airflow limitation. This observational cross-sectional study included a random sample of 222 smokers with no previous diagnosis of COPD undertaken in a Spanish region in 2014-2016.

A one-year risk score to predict all-cause mortality in hypertensive inpatients.

The aim of this study was to construct and internally validate a scoring system to estimate the probability of death in hypertensive inpatients. Existing predictive models do not meet all the indications for clinical application because they were constructed in patients enrolled in clinical trials and did not use the recommended statistical methodology. This cohort study comprised 302 hypertensive patients hospitalized between 2015 and 2017 in Spain.

A scoring system to predict 5-year mortality in patients diagnosed with laryngeal glottic cancer.

Only one prognostic model for laryngeal cancer has been published, but it has not been properly validated and is only applicable to patients treated with radiotherapy. Consequently, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in an App (Android), a predictive model of 5-year mortality in patients with glottic cancer in a cohort study of 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in Spain. The main variable was time-to-death.

A predictive model for recurrence in patients with glottic cancer implemented in a mobile application for Android.

Objectives: The existing predictive models of laryngeal cancer recurrence present limitations for clinical practice. Therefore, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application (Android) a new model based on a points system taking into account the internationally recommended statistical methodology.

Materials And Methods: This longitudinal prospective study included 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in a Spanish region.

Screening Tool to Determine Risk of Having Muscle Dysmorphia Symptoms in Men Who Engage in Weight Training at a Gym.

Objective: Although 2 screening tests exist for having a high risk of muscle dysmorphia (MD) symptoms, they both require a long time to apply. Accordingly, we proposed the construction, validation, and implementation of such a test in a mobile application using easy-to-measure factors associated with MD.

Design: Cross-sectional observational study.

Construction, internal validation and implementation in a mobile application of a scoring system to predict nonadherence to proton pump inhibitors.

Background: Other studies have assessed nonadherence to proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), but none has developed a screening test for its detection.

Objectives: To construct and internally validate a predictive model for nonadherence to PPIs.

Methods: This prospective observational study with a one-month follow-up was carried out in 2013 in Spain, and included 302 patients with a prescription for PPIs.

Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.

Background: A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence). Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.

A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years.

Unlabelled: Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003-2016.

Non-guideline-recommended prescribing of proton pump inhibitors in the general population.

Objectives: To determine the magnitude of non-guideline-recommended prescribing (NGRP) of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in the general population, its associated factors and expense.

Methods: We undertook a cross-sectional observational study in three community pharmacies in a Spanish region in 2013 involving a total of 302 patients with a prescription for PPIs. The main variable was the NGRP of PPIs.

A predictive screening tool to detect diabetic retinopathy or macular edema in primary health care: construction, validation and implementation on a mobile application.

The most described techniques used to detect diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema have to be interpreted correctly, such that a person not specialized in ophthalmology, as is usually the case of a primary care physician, may experience difficulties with their interpretation; therefore we constructed, validated and implemented as a mobile app a new tool to detect diabetic retinopathy or diabetic macular edema (DRDME) using simple objective variables. We undertook a cross-sectional, observational study of a sample of 142 eyes from Spanish diabetic patients suspected of having DRDME in 2012-2013. Our outcome was DRDME and the secondary variables were: type of diabetes, gender, age, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), foveal thickness and visual acuity (best corrected).

Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up.

Background: Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is associated with an increased mortality. Few studies have constructed predictive models of all-cause mortality with a high discriminating power for patients with this disease that would enable us to determine which patients are more likely to die.

Objective: To construct a predictive model of all-cause mortality at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years for patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC for use as a mobile application.

A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients.

As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status.

Construction and validation of a model to predict nonadherence to guidelines for prescribing antiplatelet therapy to hypertensive patients.

Objective: To construct and validate a model to predict nonadherence to guidelines for prescribing antiplatelet therapy (NGAT) to hypertensive patients.

Methods: This 3 month prospective study was undertaken in 2007-2009 to determine whether 712 hypertensive patients were or were not being prescribed antiplatelet therapy.

Outcome: NGAT according to clinical guidelines (just for patients in secondary prevention or with Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) ≥10%).