Publications by authors named "David K Guilkey"

Early marriage and childbearing put young women and their babies at risk of poor health and well-being. This study uses two rounds of longitudinal data from young women ages 15-19 in 2015-2016 and followed in 2018-2019 to determine factors associated with contraceptive use before a first pregnancy among young, married women in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India. Discrete time hazard models were used to analyze time to first use starting from the month of marriage.

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Understanding what factors influence postpartum contraceptive use among young people (ages 15-24 years) is important since this group often has closely spaced and unintended births. Using secondary data gathered for an evaluation of a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded initiative designed to increase modern contraceptive use in select urban areas of Nigeria, we determine the direct and indirect effects of community beliefs and attitudes on adolescent and youth postpartum contraceptive method choice. Our statistical methods control for the endogenous timing of the initiation of sexual activity and the timing and number of births to each respondent by simultaneous estimation of equations for these choices with the choice of postpartum contraceptive method.

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Few studies to date have determined the effect of provider bias based on age, parity, and marital status on women's method and facility choice. Using data from women using modern methods in six cities of Senegal and a facility survey that included a facility audit and provider interviews, we undertake conditional logit analyses to determine whether women's choice of a family planning facility is associated with provider bias at the facility, controlling for other facility characteristics (e.g.

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This study uses data gathered for an evaluation of a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation-funded initiative designed to increase modern contraceptive use in select urban areas of Nigeria. When the initiative was conceived, the hope was that any positive momentum in the cities would diffuse to surrounding areas. Using a variety of statistical methods, we study three aspects of diffusion and their effects on modern contraceptive use: spread through mass communications, social learning, and social influence.

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Background: Fertility intentions and contraceptive use are often used to demonstrate gaps in programs and policies to meet the contraceptive needs of women and couples. Prior work demonstrated that fertility intentions are fluid and change over a woman's (or couple's) life course with changing marital status, childbearing, and education/employment opportunities. This study uses longitudinal data to better examine the fluidity of women's fertility intentions and disentangle the complex interrelationships between fertility and contraceptive use.

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We use individual-level health facility choice data from urban Senegal to estimate consumer preferences for facility characteristics related to maternal health services. We find that consumers consider a large number of quality related facility characteristics, as well as travel costs, when making their health facility choice. In contrast to the typical assumption in the literature, our findings indicate that individuals frequently bypass the facility nearest their home.

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Background: Following the 2014 sugary drinks tax implementation in Mexico, promising reduction in the volume of purchases of taxed beverages were observed overall and at different store-types. However, the tax's effects on purchasing patterns of calories and sugar remain unclear.

Methods: Using longitudinal data from Mexican households (n = 7038), we examined changes in volume, calories and total sugar of packaged beverages purchased from 2012 to 2016 overall and by store-type.

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Few studies have examined the sustainability of family planning program outcomes in the post-program period. This article presents the results of a natural experiment where the Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative Phase I programming ended in early 2015 and Phase II activities continued in a subset of cities. Using data collected in 2015 and 2017, we compare contraceptive ideation and modern family planning use in two cities: Ilorin where program activities concluded in 2015 and Kaduna where program activities continued.

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Background: To date, there is little information on the sustainability of family planning (FP) service quality after completion of a donor-funded program. This paper examines the sustainability of the Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) program on quality of FP services in two cities: Ilorin, where the program ended in March 2015 and Kaduna where the program continued.

Methods: Data come from three time periods: 2011, before program implementation; 2014, near Phase 1 completion; and 2017, two-years post Phase 1.

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Social inequalities in health and human capital are core concerns of sociologists, but little research examines the developmental stage when such inequalities are likely to emerge-the transition to adulthood. With new data and innovative statistical methods we conceptually develop, and empirically operationalize, pathways of physical health and human capital accumulation from adolescence into young adulthood, using an autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation model. Results reveal that pathways of health and human capital accumulate at differential rates across the transition to adulthood; evidence of cross-lagged effects lend support for both social causation and health selection hypotheses.

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Background: Family planning programs increasingly aim to encourage men to be involved in women's reproductive health decision-making as well as support men to be active agents of change for their own and the couple's reproductive health needs. This study contributes to this area of work by examining men's exposure to family planning (FP) program activities in urban Senegal and determining whether exposure is associated with reported FP use and discussion of family planning with female partners.

Methods: This study uses data from two cross-sectional surveys of men in four urban sites of Senegal (Dakar, Pikine, Guédiawaye, Mbao).

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Urban areas include large numbers of adolescents (ages 15-19) and young adults (ages 20-24) who may have unmet sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs. Worldwide, adolescents contribute 11% of births, many of which are in low and middle-income countries. This study uses recently collected longitudinal data from urban Kenyan women to examine the association between targeted intervention activities and adolescents' SRH transitions.

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Research in developing countries is rarely focused on examining how supply side factors affect family planning decisions due to a lack of facility-level data. When these data exist, analyses tend to focus on rural environments. In this paper, we study the effects that health facility access and quality have on contraceptive use and desired number of children for women in urban Senegal.

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Background: It is unknown whether efforts to reduce hypertension burden in countries with very high prevalence, would be more effective if directed at hypertension diagnosis vs. treatment. Most analyses do not address bias and correlation across the sequence from elevated blood pressure (BP) to hypertension diagnosis and treatment, leading to potentially misleading findings.

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Background: The relationship between food environment exposures and diet behaviours is unclear, possibly because the majority of studies ignore potential residual confounding.

Methods: We used 20 years (1985-1986, 1992-1993 2005-2006) of data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study across four US cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California) and instrumental variables (IV) regression to obtain causal estimates of longitudinal associations between the percentage of neighbourhood food outlets (per total food outlets within 1 km network distance of respondent residence) and an diet quality score, with higher scores indicating higher diet quality. To assess the presence and magnitude of bias related to residual confounding, we compared results from causal models (IV regression) to non-causal models, including ordinary least squares regression, which does not account for residual confounding at all and fixed-effects regression, which only controls for time-invariant unmeasured characteristics.

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Background: Findings in the observational retail food environment and obesity literature are inconsistent, potentially due to a lack of adjustment for residual confounding.

Methods: Using data from the CARDIA study (n = 12 174 person-observations; 6 examinations; 1985-2011) across four US cities (Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; Oakland, CA), we used instrumental-variables (IV) regression to obtain causal estimates of the longitudinal associations between the percentage of neighbourhood food stores or restaurants (per total food outlets within 1 km network distance of respondent residence) with body mass index (BMI), adjusting for individual-level socio-demographics, health behaviours, city, year, total food outlets and market-level prices. To determine the presence and extent of bias, we compared the magnitude and direction of results with ordinary least squares (OLS) and random effects (RE) regression, which do not control for residual confounding, and with fixed effects (FE) regression, which does not control for time-varying residual confounding.

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Introduction: Understanding what influences where food outlets locate is important for mitigating disparities in access to healthy food outlets. However, few studies have examined how neighborhood characteristics influence the neighborhood food environment over time, and whether these relationships differ by neighborhood-level income.

Methods: Neighborhood-level data from four U.

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Background: Little is known about how diet-related and activity-related amenities relate to residential location behaviour. Understanding these relationships is essential for addressing residential self-selection bias.

Methods: Using 25 years (6 examinations) of data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study (n=11 013 observations) and linked neighbourhood-level data from the 4 CARDIA baseline cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California, USA), we characterised participants' neighbourhoods as having low, average or high road connectivity and amenities using non-hierarchical cluster analysis.

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We used full-system-estimation instrumental-variables simultaneous equations modeling (IV-SEM) to examine physical activity relative to body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) using 25 years of data (1985/1986 to 2010/2011) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study (n = 5,115; ages 18-30 years at enrollment). Neighborhood environment and sociodemographic instruments were used to characterize physical activity, fast-food consumption, smoking, alcohol consumption, marriage, and childbearing (women) and to predict BMI using semiparametric full-information maximum likelihood estimation to control for unobserved time-invariant and time-varying residual confounding and differential measurement error through model-derived discrete random effects. Comparing robust-variance ordinary least squares, random-effects regression, fixed-effects regression, single-equation-estimation IV-SEM, and full-system-estimation IV-SEM, estimates from random- and fixed-effects models and the full-system-estimation IV-SEM were unexpectedly similar, despite the lack of control for residual confounding with the random-effects estimator.

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Objectives: The Urban Health Initiative (UHI) was initiated in 2009 with the goal of increasing family planning (FP) use among the poor in urban areas of Uttar Pradesh, India. The Measurement, Learning & Evaluation project (MLE) was tasked with rigorous impact evaluation of the UHI. This paper presents the impact evaluation findings of the UHI program.

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Little research has addressed whether neighborhood context influences associations between fast food price, diet, and cardiometabolic health. We investigated these associations using 25 years of Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study data (n=4,469, observations=21,134). We found a negative association between fast food price and consumption, with stronger inverse associations in more (vs.

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Importance: Fiscal food policies (eg, taxation) are increasingly proposed to improve population-level health, but their impact on health disparities is unknown.

Objective: To estimate subgroup-specific effects of fast food price changes on fast food consumption and cardiometabolic outcomes.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Twenty-year follow-up (5 examinations) in a biracial US prospective cohort: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) (1985/1986-2005/2006, baseline N = 5115).

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A huge literature shows that teen mothers face a variety of detriments across the life course, including truncated educational attainment. To what extent is this association causal? The estimated effects of teen motherhood on schooling vary widely, ranging from no discernible difference to 2.6 fewer years among teen mothers.

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Family planning has widespread positive impacts for population health and well-being; contraceptive use not only decreases unintended pregnancies and reduces infant and maternal mortality and morbidity, but it is critical to the achievement of Millennium Development Goals. This study uses baseline, representative data from six cities in Uttar Pradesh, India to examine family planning use among the urban poor. Data were collected from about 3,000 currently married women in each city (Allahabad, Agra, Varanasi, Aligarh, Gorakhpur, and Moradabad) for a total sample size of 17,643 women.

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Background: While dietary intake is shaped by cost, there is minimal research on the association between community-level food prices and dietary intake.

Methods: We used nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine how community-level food price variation was associated with individual-level fast food intake by race/ethnicity and income across waves II (1996) and III (2001-2002) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n=11,088) from 158 baseline and 363 follow-up US counties.

Results: Negative binomial regression models predicting the number of fast food meals per week show strong relationships between fast food consumption and prices of fast food and soda that varied by gender and race/ethnicity.

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