An exact approach to calibrating infectious disease models to surveillance data: The case of HIV and HSV-2.

When mathematical models of infectious diseases are used to inform health policy, an important first step is often to calibrate a model to disease surveillance data for a specific setting (or multiple settings). It is increasingly common to also perform sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the robustness, or lack thereof, of the modeling results. Doing so requires the modeler to find multiple parameter sets for which the model produces behavior that is consistent with the surveillance data.

Practical aspects of backward bifurcation in a mathematical model for tuberculosis.

In this work, we examine practical aspects of backward bifurcation for a data-based model of tuberculosis that incorporates multiple features which have previously been shown to produce backward bifurcation (e.g. exogenous reinfection and imperfect vaccination) and new considerations such as the treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) and the BCG vaccine's interference with detecting LTBI.

Using geospatial modelling to optimize the rollout of antiretroviral-based pre-exposure HIV interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Antiretroviral (ARV)-based pre-exposure HIV interventions may soon be rolled out in resource-constrained Sub-Saharan African countries, but rollout plans have yet to be designed. Here we use geospatial modelling and optimization techniques to compare two rollout plans for ARV-based microbicides in South Africa: a utilitarian plan that minimizes incidence by using geographic targeting, and an egalitarian plan that maximizes geographic equity in access to interventions. We find significant geographic variation in the efficiency of interventions in reducing HIV transmission, and that efficiency increases disproportionately with increasing incidence.

Trade-off between BCG vaccination and the ability to detect and treat latent tuberculosis.

Policies regarding the use of the Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine for tuberculosis vary greatly throughout the international community. In several countries, consideration of discontinuing universal vaccination programs is currently under way. The arguments against mass vaccination are that the effectiveness of BCG in preventing tuberculosis is uncertain and that BCG vaccination can interfere with the detection and treatment of latent tuberculosis.

An SEIQR model for childhood diseases.

It has been shown that the inclusion of an isolated class in the classical SIR model for childhood diseases can be responsible for self-sustained oscillations. Hence, the recurrent outbreaks of such diseases can be caused by autonomous, deterministic factors. We extend the model to include a latent class (i.