Publications by authors named "David Illingworth"

Using data from a geopolitical forecasting tournament, Mellers et al. (2014) [Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. , 1106-1115] concluded that forecasting ability was improved by allowing participants to work in teams and providing them with probability training.

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Despite the common assumption that citations are indicative of an article's scientific merit, increasing evidence indicates that citation counts are largely driven by variables unrelated to quality. In this article, we treat people's decisions of what to cite as an instance of memory retrieval and show that observed citation patterns are well accounted for by a model of memory. The proposed exposure model anticipates that small alterations in factors that affect people's ability to retrieve to-be-cited articles from memory early in their life cycle are magnified over time and can lead to the emergence of highly cited papers.

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Theories of how people value and search for information share the assumption that beliefs give rise to the perceived value of information. However, few studies have directly addressed the pre-search processes that influence information-foraging behavior. This experiment examined the influence of pre-search belief updating on the perceived value of information sources.

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Objective: The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making.

Background: Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information and visualizing their combined utility rather than objective measurements or individual utility.

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Although temporal dynamics are inherent aspects of diagnostic tasks, few studies have investigated how various aspects of time course influence hypothesis generation. An experiment is reported that demonstrates that working memory dynamics operating during serial data acquisition bias hypothesis generation. The presentation rate (and order) of a sequence of serially presented symptoms was manipulated to be either fast (180 ms per symptom) or slow (1,500 ms per symptom) in a simulated medical diagnosis task.

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Certain research tasks require extracting data points from graphs and charts. Using 91 graphs that presented results from single-case designs, we investigated whether pairs of coders extract similar data from the same graphs (reliability), and whether the extracted data match numerical descriptions of the graph that the original author may have presented in tables or text (validity). Coders extracted data using the UnGraph computer program.

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Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibrations that will allow prediction of the solid fat content (SFC) of milk fat extracted from butter by one measurement during manufacture were developed. SFC is a measure of the amount of the solid fraction of fat crystallized at a temperature expressed as a percentage (w/w). At-line SFC determinations are currently performed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, which involves a 16 h delay period for tempering of the milk fat at 0 degrees C prior to the SFC measurements, from 0 to 35 degrees C in a series of 5 degrees C increments.

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