Moonshots, investment booms, and selection bias in the transmission of cultural traits.

Biased information about the payoffs received by others can drive innovation, risk taking, and investment booms. We study this cultural phenomenon using a model based on two premises. The first is a tendency for large successes, and the actions that lead to them, to be more salient to onlookers than small successes or failures.

Social finance as cultural evolution, transmission bias, and market dynamics.

The thoughts and behaviors of financial market participants depend upon adopted cultural traits, including information signals, beliefs, strategies, and folk economic models. Financial traits compete to survive in the human population and are modified in the process of being transmitted from one agent to another. These cultural evolutionary processes shape market outcomes, which in turn feed back into the success of competing traits.

Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits.

Human populations in many countries have undergone a phase of demographic transition, characterized by a major reduction in fertility at a time of increased resource availability. A key stylized fact is that the reduction in fertility is preceded by a reduction in mortality and a consequent increase in population density. Various theories have been proposed to account for the demographic transition process, including maladaptation, increased parental investment in fewer offspring, and cultural evolution.

There is little evidence that the Industrial Revolution was caused by a preference shift.

The idea, based on Life History Theory, that the Industrial Revolution was a positive feedback process wherein prosperity induced prosperity-promoting preference shifts is just an intriguing speculation. The evidence does not distinguish this explanation from simple alternatives. For example, increased prosperity may have freed up time for individuals to engage in innovative activity and increased the benefits from doing so.

Social transmission bias and the cultural evolution of folk-economic beliefs.

Evolved dispositions influence, but do not determine, how people think about economic problems. The evolutionary cognitive approach offers important insights but underweights the social transmission of ideas as a level of explanation. The need for a social explanation for the evolution of economic attitudes is evidenced, for example, by immense variations in folk-economic beliefs over time and across individuals.