Publications by authors named "David Buckeridge"

Article Synopsis
  • Lyme disease (LD) surveillance in Manitoba faces challenges, including underreporting, which affects the understanding of disease trends and distribution.
  • A retrospective analysis from 2009 to 2018 identified 1,658 clinician-diagnosed LD cases from over 1.6 million registrants, with the majority occurring during peak tick activity (May to July).
  • Annualized findings revealed a mean incidence of 10.17 cases per 100,000 people, significantly higher than the 30 cases reported by the Manitoba Health surveillance system, highlighting the extent of underreporting.
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Background: Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in population and public health to support epidemiological studies, surveillance, and evaluation. Our objective was to conduct a scoping review to identify studies that use ML in population health, with a focus on its use in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We also examine potential algorithmic biases in model design, training, and implementation, as well as efforts to mitigate these biases.

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Introduction: Almost half of patients discharged from hospital are readmitted or return to the emergency department (ED) within 90 days. Non-adherence to medication changes made during hospitalisation and the use of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) both contribute to postdischarge adverse events. We developed Smart About Meds (SAM), a patient-centred mobile application that targets medication non-adherence and PIMs use.

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Although opioids continue to be used internationally for noncancer pain, evidence to date on the comparative safety of different opioids is sparse and conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the comparative risk of all-cause mortality in patients newly initiated on opioids for noncancer pain, across 3 jurisdictions in the United Kingdom (UK), United States, and Canada. A multicentre retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted.

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Submitted genomic data for respiratory viruses reflect the emergence and spread of new variants. Although delays in submission limit the utility of these data for prospective surveillance, they may be useful for evaluating other surveillance sources. However, few studies have investigated the use of these data for evaluating aberration detection in surveillance systems.

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Setting: Mathematical modelling played an important role in the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada. Variability in epidemic trajectories, modelling approaches, and data infrastructure across provinces provides a unique opportunity to understand the factors that shaped modelling strategies.

Intervention: Provinces implemented stringent pandemic interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, considering evidence from epidemic models.

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Article Synopsis
  • In Canada, each province and territory handles their own health data, which made it tricky to share information during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • There were 11 different surveys done to test how many people had antibodies from the virus, but they each used different methods, making it hard to compare results across regions.
  • To do better in the future, Canada needs a strong and flexible system for tracking health data that can quickly adjust to new situations and work together across different areas.
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We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the observation-level variance of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive and novel way of dealing with heteroskedastic data using the conditional nature of state-space models. We follow the Bayesian paradigm to perform the inference procedure.

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Background: Needle and syringe programs (NSP) are effective harm-reduction strategies against HIV and hepatitis C. Although skin, soft tissue, and vascular infections (SSTVI) are the most common morbidities in people who inject drugs (PWID), the extent to which NSP are clinically and cost-effective in relation to SSTVI in PWID remains unclear. The objective of this study was to model the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of NSP with respect to treatment of SSTVI in PWID.

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Background: With an increasing interest in using large claims databases in medical practice and research, it is a meaningful and essential step to efficiently identify patients with the disease of interest.

Objectives: This study aims to establish a machine learning (ML) approach to identify patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) in large claims databases.

Methods: We harnessed data from the Quebec claims and hospitalization databases from 1983 to 2000.

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Background: In Canada's largest COVID-19 serological study, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in blood donors have been monitored since 2020. No study has analysed changes in the association between anti-N seropositivity (a marker of recent infection) and geographic and sociodemographic characteristics over the pandemic.

Methods: Using Bayesian multi-level models with spatial effects at the census division level, we analysed changes in correlates of SARS-CoV-2 anti-N seropositivity across three periods in which different variants predominated (pre-Delta, Delta and Omicron).

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Innovative data sources and methods for public health surveillance (PHS) have evolved rapidly over the past 10 years, suggesting the need for a closer look at the scientific maturity, feasibility, and utility of use in real-world situations. This article provides an overview of recent innovations in PHS, including data from social media, internet search engines, the Internet of Things (IoT), wastewater surveillance, participatory surveillance, artificial intelligence (AI), and nowcasting. Examples identified suggest that novel data sources and analytic methods have the potential to strengthen PHS by improving disease estimates, promoting early warning for disease outbreaks, and generating additional and/or more timely information for public health action.

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Article Synopsis
  • Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been crucial in managing COVID-19, but there's ongoing uncertainty about their effectiveness due to data quality and contextual differences.
  • * A mechanistic model was created to analyze the impact of NPIs and vaccines on virus transmission and hospitalizations, using data from France between March 2020 and October 2021.
  • * The first lockdown was highly effective at reducing transmission by 84%, while later lockdowns showed diminishing returns; the model predicted that timely vaccine availability could have significantly reduced deaths and hospitalizations.*
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Article Synopsis
  • Distributed computations enable efficient multi-institutional data analysis without the complications of data pooling, but existing methods lack essential features such as medical standards, user-friendly data visualizations, and privacy controls.
  • The Collaborative Data Analysis (CODA) platform was developed to address these gaps, successfully implementing multi-modal federated learning using a public dataset across multiple Canadian hospitals, with open-source code released for broader use.
  • By January 2023, CODA was deployed in 8 out of 9 hospitals and enrolled over 1 million patients; however, mapping data from outdated systems posed significant challenges, with future improvements planned for enhanced risk assessment and data migration tools.
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Background: In Canada, all provinces implemented vaccine passports in 2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in non-essential indoor spaces and increase vaccine uptake (policies active September 2021-March 2022 in Quebec and Ontario). We sought to evaluate the impact of vaccine passport policies on first-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage by age, and area-level income and proportion of racialized residents.

Methods: We performed interrupted time series analyses using data from Quebec's and Ontario's vaccine registries linked to census information (population of 20.

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Background: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of reported cases of COVID-19 among Canadians was under 6%. Although high vaccine coverage was achieved in Canada by fall 2021, the Omicron variant caused unprecedented numbers of infections, overwhelming testing capacity and making it difficult to quantify the trajectory of population immunity.

Methods: Using a time-series approach and data from more than 900 000 samples collected by 7 research studies collaborating with the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force (CITF), we estimated trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence owing to infection and vaccination for the Canadian population over 3 intervals: prevaccination (March to November 2020), vaccine roll-out (December 2020 to November 2021), and the arrival of the Omicron variant (December 2021 to March 2023).

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Non-parametric estimation of the survival function using observed failure time data depends on the underlying data generating mechanism, including the ways in which the data may be censored and/or truncated. For data arising from a single source or collected from a single cohort, a wide range of estimators have been proposed and compared in the literature. Often, however, it may be possible, and indeed advantageous, to combine and then analyze survival data that have been collected under different study designs.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting daily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases.

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Article Synopsis
  • A study in Montréal assessed the effectiveness of rapid antigen detection tests (RADTs) compared to PCR tests for diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 in high school settings from January to June 2021.
  • Out of nearly 2400 participants, RADTs showed high specificity (99.8%-100%) but lower sensitivity, identifying only 28.6% of asymptomatic and 83.3% of symptomatic cases.
  • The research suggested that enforcing symptom screening and on-the-spot RADT testing for symptomatic students could help prevent further outbreaks in schools.
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Background: After a strong epidemiological link to diet was established in an outbreak of pancytopenia in cats in spring 2021 in the United Kingdom, 3 dry diets were recalled. Concentrations of the hemato- and myelotoxic mycotoxins T-2, HT-2 and diacetoxyscirpenol (DAS) greater than the European Commission guidance for dry cat foods were detected in the recalled diets.

Objectives: To describe clinical and clinicopathological findings in cats diagnosed with suspected diet induced pancytopenia.

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This editorial article aims to highlight advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in five areas: Collaborative AI, Multimodal AI, Human-Centered AI, Equitable AI, and Ethical and Value-based AI in order to cope with future complex socioeconomic and public health issues.

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Introduction: There is increasing interest for patient-to-provider telemedicine in pediatric acute care. The suitability of telemedicine (virtualizability) for visits in this setting has not been formally assessed. We estimated the proportion of in-person pediatric emergency department (PED) visits that were potentially virtualizable, and identified factors associated with virtualizable care.

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Background: Our understanding of the global scale of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remains incomplete: Routine surveillance data underestimate infection and cannot infer on population immunity; there is a predominance of asymptomatic infections, and uneven access to diagnostics. We meta-analyzed SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies, standardized to those described in the World Health Organization's Unity protocol (WHO Unity) for general population seroepidemiological studies, to estimate the extent of population infection and seropositivity to the virus 2 years into the pandemic.

Methods And Findings: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, searching MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, preprints, and grey literature for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence published between January 1, 2020 and May 20, 2022.

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