Changing Climate Drives Divergent and Nonlinear Shifts in Flowering Phenology across Elevations.

Climate change is known to affect regional weather patterns and phenology; however, we lack understanding of how climate drives phenological change across local spatial gradients. This spatial variation is critical for determining whether subpopulations and metacommunities are changing in unison or diverging in phenology. Divergent responses could reduce synchrony both within species (disrupting gene flow among subpopulations) and among species (disrupting interspecific interactions in communities).

Within-season flowering interruptions are common in the water-limited Sky Islands.

Within-season breaks in flowering have been reported in a wide range of highly variable ecosystems including deserts, tropical forests and high-elevation meadows. A tendency for interruptions in flowering has also been documented in southwestern US "Sky Island" plant communities, which encompass xeric to mesic conditions. Seasonal breaks in flowering have implications for plant reproductive success, population structure, and gene flow as well as resource availability for pollinators and dependent animals.

Spring and summer patterns in flowering onset, duration, and constancy across a water-limited gradient.

Premise Of The Study: Community-level flowering patterns can be characterized by onset, duration, and end as well as constancy, the degree to which species commence, cease, and reinitiate flowering within a season. In the mountainous Sky Islands region of the southwestern United States, flowering onset is clearly influenced by elevation in the spring, but much less so in the summer season. We evaluated whether these flowering metrics reflect these dissimilar patterns between distinct spring and summer seasons regarding the influence of the elevation and moisture gradient.

Asynchronous changes in phenology of migrating Broad-tailed Hummingbirds and their early-season nectar resources.

Phenological advancements driven by climate change are especially pronounced at higher latitudes, so that migrants from lower latitudes may increasingly arrive at breeding grounds after the appearance of seasonal resources. To explore this possibility, we compared dates of first arrival of Broad-tailed Hummingbirds (Selasphorus platycercus) to dates of flowering of plants they visit for nectar. Near the southern limit of the breeding range, neither hummingbird arrival nor first flowering dates have changed significantly over the past few decades.

Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns.

Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change.

Onset of summer flowering in a 'Sky Island' is driven by monsoon moisture.

Temperatures for the southwestern USA are predicted to increase in coming decades, especially during the summer season; however, little is known about how summer precipitation patterns may change. We aimed to better understand how nonsucculent plants of a water-limited gradient encompassing xeric desert to mesic mountain-top may respond to changes in summer conditions. We used a species-rich 26-yr flowering record to determine species' relationships with precipitation and temperature in months coincident with and previous to flowering.

Relationships between alpha diversity of plant species in bloom and climatic variables across an elevation gradient.

This study analyzes a 20-year record of flowering observations collected near Tucson, Arizona, USA. In contrast to traditional phenological records, this dataset is a record of all species observed in bloom collected in five segments of approximately 1 mile (1.61 km) in length across a 4,158-ft (1,200-m) elevation gradient.