Publications by authors named "Dave Kelly"

Background And Aims: Both plants and animals display considerable variation in their phe- notypic traits as they grow. This variation helps organisms to adapt to specific challenges at different stages of development. Masting, the variable and synchronized seed production across years by a population of plants, is a common reproductive strategy in perennial plants that can enhance reproductive efficiency through increasing pollination efficiency and decreasing seed predation.

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Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure.

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High interannual variation in seed production in perennial plants can be synchronized at subcontinental scales with wide consequences for ecosystem functioning, but how such synchrony is generated is unclear. We investigated the factors contributing to masting synchrony in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), which extends to a geographic range of 2,000 km. Maximizing masting synchrony via spatial weather coordination, known as the Moran effect, requires a simultaneous response to weather conditions across distant populations.

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Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production ("masting breakdown") which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees.

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Variable acorn crops in oaks were thought to reflect variable pollination success, but a new study shows local climates determine whether pollination or flower production drives acorn crops. This affects forest regeneration under climate change, and cautions against dichotomous summaries of biological phenomena.

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Masting, the synchronous, highly variable flowering across years by a population of perennial plants, has been reported to be precipitated by various factors including nitrogen levels, drought conditions, and spring and summer temperatures. However, the molecular mechanism leading to the initiation of flowering in masting plants in particular years remains largely unknown, despite the potential impact of climate change on masting phenology. We studied genes controlling flowering in the alpine snow tussock Chionochloa pallens (Poaceae), a strongly masting perennial grass.

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Studying the genetic basis of masting.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci

December 2021

The mechanisms underlying mast seeding have traditionally been studied by collecting long-term observational data on seed crops and correlating seedfall with environmental variables. Significant progress in ecological genomics will improve our understanding of the evolution of masting by clarifying the genetic basis of masting traits and the role of natural selection in shaping those traits. Here, we summarize three important aspects in studying the evolution of masting at the genetic level: which traits govern masting, whether those traits are genetically regulated, and which taxa show wide variation in these traits.

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Fagaceae includes typical masting species that exhibit highly synchronized and fluctuating acorn production. Fagaceae shows an interesting feature in that fertilization is delayed by several weeks to more than 1 year after pollination. Although delayed fertilization was recorded over a century ago, the evolutionary advantage of delayed fertilization is still poorly understood.

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Islands are epicenters of animal extinctions and population declines. These losses exacerbate biodiversity loss and disrupt ecological services in areas of high endemism. Island defaunation is primarily driven by invasive mammalian predators, and mammal eradications are reversing population declines for some island species.

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Mast flowering (or masting) is synchronous, highly variable flowering among years in populations of perennial plants. Despite having widespread consequences for seed consumers, endangered fauna and human health, masting is hard to predict. While observational studies show links to various weather patterns in different plant species, the mechanism(s) underpinning the regulation of masting is still not fully explained.

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Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide with consequences for population recruitment and migration potential. For the many species that regenerate through synchronized, quasiperiodic reproductive events termed masting, these changes include decreases in the synchrony and interannual variation in seed production. This breakdown in the occurrence of masting features harms reproduction by decreasing the efficiency of pollination and increasing seed predation.

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Background: There is an urgent need for epidemiological research in primary care to develop risk assessment processes for patients presenting with COVID-19, but lack of a standardised approach to data collection is a significant barrier to implementation.

Aim: To collate a list of relevant symptoms, assessment items, demographics, and lifestyle and health conditions associated with COVID-19, and match these data items with corresponding SNOMED CT clinical terms to support the development and implementation of consultation templates.

Design & Setting: Published and preprint literature for systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and clinical guidelines describing the symptoms, assessment items, demographics, and/or lifestyle and health conditions associated with COVID-19 and its complications were reviewed.

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Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important.

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Background And Aims: In a range of plant species, the distribution of individual mean fecundity is skewed and dominated by a few highly fecund individuals. Larger plants produce greater seed crops, but the exact nature of the relationship between size and reproductive patterns is poorly understood. This is especially clear in plants that reproduce by exhibiting synchronized quasi-periodic variation in fruit production, a process called masting.

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Introduction: Following the emergence of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 and the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of existing or new therapeutic or preventive interventions are required to ensure that interventions are targeted to those at highest risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19. We aim to repurpose and expand an existing pandemic reporting platform to determine the attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine (once available) and any protective effect conferred by existing or new antimicrobial drugs and other therapies.

Methods And Analysis: A prospective observational cohort will be used to monitor daily/weekly the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic and to evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions in approximately 5.

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Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals.

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Background: Mast flowering ('masting') is characterized by mass synchronized flowering at irregular intervals in populations of perennial plants over a wide geographical area, resulting in irregular high seed production. While masting is a global phenomenon, it is particularly prevalent in the alpine flora of New Zealand. Increases in global temperature may alter the masting pattern, affecting wider communities with a potential impact on plant-pollinator interactions, seed set and food availability for seed-consuming species.

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Human presence is becoming increasingly ubiquitous, but the influence this has on the seed dispersal services performed by frugivorous animals is largely unknown. The New Zealand weka () is an inquisitive flightless rail that frequently congregates in areas of high human use. Weka are important seed dispersers, yet the seed dispersal services they provide are still poorly understood.

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Understanding the mutualistic services provided by species is critical when considering both the consequences of their loss or the benefits of their reintroduction. Like many other Pacific islands, New Zealand seed dispersal networks have been changed by both significant losses of large frugivorous birds and the introduction of invasive mammals. These changes are particularly concerning when important dispersers remain unidentified.

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Often the mutualistic roles of extinct species are inferred based on plausible assumptions, but sometimes palaeoecological evidence can overturn such inferences. We present an example from New Zealand, where it has been widely assumed that some of the largest-seeded plants were dispersed by the giant extinct herbivorous moa (Dinornithiformes). The presence of large seeds in preserved moa gizzard contents supported this hypothesis, and five slow-germinating plant species () with thick seedcoats prompted speculation about whether these plants were adapted for moa dispersal.

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Plant-feeding insects use visual and olfactory cues (shape, color, plant volatiles) for host location, but the relative importance of different cues and interactions with non-host-plant volatiles in ecosystems of varying plant biodiversity is unclear for most species. We studied invasive bark beetles and wood borers associated with pine trees to characterize interactions among color, host and non-host volatiles, by employing traps that mimic tree trunks. Cross-vane flight intercept traps (black, green, red, white, yellow, clear) and black funnel traps were used with and without attractants (α-pinene + ethanol), repellents (non-host green leaf volatiles, 'GLV'), and attractant/repellent combinations in four pine forests in New Zealand.

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