Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It also highlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable vaccine distribution. The 100 Days Mission aims to develop and make available a new vaccine against a future pathogen with pandemic potential within 100 days of that pathogen threat being recognised.

Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study.

Background: Vaccines have reduced severe disease and death from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, with evidence of waning efficacy coupled with continued evolution of the virus, health programmes need to evaluate the requirement for regular booster doses, considering their impact and cost-effectiveness in the face of ongoing transmission and substantial infection-induced immunity.

Methods And Findings: We developed a combined immunological-transmission model parameterised with data on transmissibility, severity, and vaccine effectiveness.

Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach.

With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year.

Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.

Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.

The societal cost of vaccine refusal: A modelling study using measles vaccination as a case study.

Background: Increasing vaccine hesitancy and refusal poses a challenge to public health as even small reductions in vaccine uptake can result in large outbreaks of infectious diseases. Here we estimate the societal costs of vaccine refusal using measles as a case study.

Methods: We developed a compartmental metapopulation model of measles transmission to explore how the changes in the size and level of social mixing between populations that are "pro-vaccination", and "anti-vaccination" impacts the burden of measles.

Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Vaccine hesitancy - a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability - has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. In this study, we aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: We modelled the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys.

Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine.

Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

Objectives: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China.

Methods: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces.

The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit.