Inequalities in ownership and availability of home-based vaccination records in 82 low- and middle-income countries.

Introduction: Home-based records (HBRs) are widely used for recording health information including child immunisations. We studied levels and inequalities in HBR ownership in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) using data from national surveys conducted since 2010.

Methods: We used data from national household surveys (Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS)) from 82 LMICs.

Exploring the "Urban Advantage" in Access to Immunization Services: A Comparison of Zero-Dose Prevalence Between Rural, and Poor and Non-poor Urban Households Across 97 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Urban children are more likely to be vaccinated than rural children, but that advantage is not evenly distributed. Children living in poor urban areas face unique challenges, living far from health facilities and with lower-quality health services, which can impact their access to life-saving vaccines. Our goal was to compare the prevalence of zero-dose children in poor and non-poor urban and rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Child immunization status according to number of siblings and birth order in 85 low- and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Identification of unvaccinated children is important for preventing deaths due to infections. Number of siblings and birth order have been postulated as risk factors for zero-dose prevalence.

Methods: We analysed nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from 85 low and middle-income countries (2010-2020) with information on immunisation status of children aged 12-35 months.

Religious affiliation as a driver of immunization coverage: Analyses of zero-dose vaccine prevalence in 66 low- and middle-income countries.

Background: The literature on the association between religion and immunization coverage is scant, mostly consisting of single-country studies. Analyses in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) to assess whether the proportions of zero-dose children vary according to religion remains necessary to better understand non-socioeconomic immunization barriers and to inform interventions that target zero-dose children.

Methods: We included 66 LMICs with standardized national surveys carried out since 2010, with information on religion and vaccination.

Exposure of Zero-Dose Children to Multiple Deprivation: Analyses of Data from 80 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

The concept of multiple deprivation recognizes that the same individuals, households, and communities are often exposed to several forms of scarcity. We assessed whether lack of immunization is also associated with nutritional, environmental, and educational outcomes. We analyzed data from nationally representative surveys from 80 low- and middle-income countries with information on no-DPT (children aged 12-23 months without any doses of a diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus containing vaccine), stunting, wasting, maternal education and use of contraception, improved water and sanitation, and long-lasting insecticidal nets.

Ethnic disparities in immunisation: analyses of zero-dose prevalence in 64 countries.

Background: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recommend stratification of health indicators by ethnic group, yet there are few studies that have assessed if there are ethnic disparities in childhood immunisation in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods: We identified 64 LMICs with standardised national surveys carried out since 2010, which provided information on ethnicity or a proxy variable and on vaccine coverage; 339 ethnic groups were identified after excluding those with fewer than 50 children in the sample and countries with a single ethnic group. Lack of vaccination with diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine-a proxy for no access to routine vaccination or 'zero-dose' status-was the outcome of interest.

Economic-Related Inequalities in Zero-Dose Children: A Study of Non-Receipt of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Immunization Using Household Health Survey Data from 89 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Despite advances in scaling up new vaccines in low- and middle-income countries, the global number of unvaccinated children has remained high over the past decade. We used 2000-2019 household survey data from 154 surveys representing 89 low- and middle-income countries to assess within-country, economic-related inequality in the prevalence of one-year-old children with zero doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine. Zero-dose DTP prevalence data were disaggregated by household wealth quintile.

Children of more empowered women are less likely to be left without vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: A global analysis of 50 DHS surveys.

Background: To help provide a global understanding of the role of gender-related barriers to vaccination, we have used a broad measure of women's empowerment and explored its association with the prevalence of zero-dose children aged 12-23 months across many low- and middle-income countries, using data from standardized national household surveys.

Methods: We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 50 countries with information on both women's empowerment and child immunisation. Zero-dose was operationally defined as the proportion of children who failed to receive any doses of the diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus containing vaccines (DPT).

Assessing the overlap between immunisation and other essential health interventions in 92 low- and middle-income countries using household surveys: opportunities for expanding immunisation and primary health care.

Background: Unvaccinated children may live in households with limited access to other primary health care (PHC) services, and routine vaccination services may provide the opportunity to bring caregivers into contact with the health system. We aimed to investigate the overlap between not being vaccinated and failing to receive other PHC services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods: Using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) data between 2010-2019 from 92 LMICs, we analysed six vaccination indicators based on the bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), polio, diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccines and their overlap with four other PHC indicators - at least four antenatal care (ANC) visits, institutional delivery, careseeking for common childhood illnesses or symptoms and place for handwashing in the home - in 211,141 children aged 12-23 months.

Zero-dose children and the immunisation cascade: Understanding immunisation pathways in low and middle-income countries.

Introduction: Zero-dose prevalence refers to children who failed to receive any routine vaccination. Little is known about the "immunisation cascade" in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), defined as how children move from zero dose to full immunisation.

Methods: Using data from national surveys carried out in 92 LMICs since 2010 and focusing on the four basic vaccines delivered in infancy (BCG, polio, DPT and MCV), we describe zero-dose prevalence and the immunisation cascade in children aged 12 to 23 months.

Monitoring universal health coverage within the Sustainable Development Goals: development and baseline data for an index of essential health services.

Background: Achieving universal health coverage, including quality essential service coverage and financial protection for all, is target 3.8 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). As a result, an index of essential health service coverage indicators was selected by the UN as SDG indicator 3.

[Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER Statement].

Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures.

Should HIV testing for all pregnant women continue? Cost-effectiveness of universal antenatal testing compared to focused approaches across high to very low HIV prevalence settings.

Introduction: HIV testing is the entry point for the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Decreasing external funding for the HIV response in some low- and middle-income countries has triggered the question of whether a focused approach to HIV testing targeting pregnant women in high-burden areas should be considered. This study aimed at determining and comparing the cost-effectiveness of universal and focused HIV testing approaches for pregnant women across high to very low HIV prevalence settings.

Correction: Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.

Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

Gretchen Stevens and colleagues present the GATHER statement, which seeks to promote good practice in the reporting of global health estimates.

Estimating The Potential Impact Of Insurance Expansion On Undiagnosed And Uncontrolled Chronic Conditions.

Policy makers have paid considerable attention to the financial implications of insurance expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but there is little evidence of the law's potential health effects. To gain insight into these effects, we analyzed data for 1999-2012 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to evaluate relationships between health insurance and the diagnosis and management of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension. People with insurance had significantly higher probabilities of diagnosis than matched uninsured people, by 14 percentage points for diabetes and hypercholesterolemia and 9 percentage points for hypertension.

Neonatal cause-of-death estimates for the early and late neonatal periods for 194 countries: 2000-2013.

Objective: To estimate cause-of-death distributions in the early (0-6 days of age) and late (7-27 days of age) neonatal periods, for 194 countries between 2000 and 2013.

Methods: For 65 countries with high-quality vital registration, we used each country's observed early and late neonatal proportional cause distributions. For the remaining 129 countries, we used multinomial logistic models to estimate these distributions.

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013.

Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.

Methods: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15-49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting.

Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.

Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013.

Objective(s): To assess differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population surveys and antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites and to improve the calibration of ANC-derived estimates in Spectrum 2013 to more appropriately account for differences between these data.

Design: Retrospective analysis of national population survey and ANC surveillance data from 25 countries with generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and 8 countries with concentrated epidemics.

Methods: Adult national population survey and ANC surveillance HIV prevalence estimates were compared for all available national population survey data points for the years 1999-2012.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Background: Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach.

Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection, with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package.

Objective: We previously developed a flexible specification of the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that relied on splines to generate time-varying values for the force of infection parameter. Here, we test the feasibility of this approach for concentrated HIV/AIDS epidemics with very sparse data and compare two methods for making short-term future projections with the spline-based model.

Methods: Penalised B-splines are used to model the average infection risk over time within the EPP 2011 modelling framework, which includes antiretroviral treatment effects and CD4 cell count progression, and is fit to sentinel surveillance prevalence data with a Bayesian algorithm.