Combining a Multi-Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi-Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.

Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations across multiple domains, multi-scenario, and multi GCM- RCM combinations from CORDEX data.

Towards the evaluation of regional ecosystem integrity using NDVI, brightness temperature and surface heterogeneity.

Maintaining ecological integrity is globally acknowledged as a strategic goal, yet there is no consensus on a practical and widely usable methodology to assess it. This study proposes a comprehensive approach to quantify regional ecosystem integrity based on FAIR data, obtained using satellite remote sensing and image analysis. Three variables are central to this approach: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), at-satellite brightness temperature (BT) and vegetation surface heterogeneity (HG), corresponding to ecosystem integrity indicators exergy capture, biotic water flows and abiotic heterogeneity.

Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction.

Seasonal climate forecasts produce probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables for subsequent months. This provides a potential resource to predict the influence of seasonal climate anomalies on surface water balance in catchments and hydro-thermodynamics in related water bodies (e.g.

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown.