Publications by authors named "Dan Todkill"

IntroductionRespiratory sentinel surveillance systems leveraging computerised medical records (CMR) use phenotyping algorithms to identify cases of interest, such as acute respiratory infection (ARI). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) is the English primary care-based sentinel surveillance network.AimThis study describes and validates the RSC's new ARI phenotyping algorithm.

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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterized by the repeated emergence of genetically distinct virus variants of increased transmissibility and immune evasion compared to pre-existing lineages. In many countries, their containment required the intervention of public health authorities and the imposition of control measures. While the primary role of testing is to identify infection, target treatment, and limit spread (through isolation and contact tracing), a secondary benefit is in terms of surveillance and the early detection of new variants.

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Syndromic surveillance was originally developed to provide early warning compared to laboratory surveillance, but it is increasing used for real-time situational awareness. When a potential threat to public health is identified, a rapid assessment of its impact is required for public health management. When threats are localised, analysis is more complex as local trends need to be separated from national trends and differences compared to unaffected areas may be due to confounding factors such as deprivation or age distributions.

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Background: The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) is one of Europe's oldest sentinel systems, working with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and its predecessor bodies for 55 years. Its surveillance report now runs twice weekly, supplemented by online observatories. In addition to conducting sentinel surveillance from a nationally representative group of practices, the RSC is now also providing data for syndromic surveillance.

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The rapid detection of outbreaks is a key step in the effective control and containment of infectious diseases. In particular, the identification of cases which might be epidemiologically linked is crucial in directing outbreak-containment efforts and shaping the intervention of public health authorities. Often this requires the detection of clusters of cases whose numbers exceed those expected by a background of sporadic cases.

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Extreme weather events present significant global threats to health. The National Ambulance Syndromic Surveillance System collects data on 18 syndromes through chief presenting complaint (CPC) codes. We aimed to determine the utility of ambulance data to monitor extreme temperature events for action.

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Surveillance systems need to be evaluated to understand what the system can or cannot detect. The measures commonly used to quantify detection capabilities are sensitivity, positive predictive value and timeliness. However, the practical application of these measures to multi-purpose syndromic surveillance services is complex.

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Background: In August 2020, an outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 occurred in the United Kingdom. Whole genome sequencing revealed that these cases formed a genetically distinct cluster.

Methods: Hypotheses generated from case interviews were tested in analytical studies, and results informed environmental sampling and food chain analysis.

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Background: In March 2018, NHS England published guidance for clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) to encourage implementation of policy to reduce primary care prescriptions of over-the-counter medications, including simple analgesia.

Aim: To investigate the impact of guidance publication on prescribing rates of simple analgesia (oral paracetamol, oral ibuprofen, and topical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) in primary care; CCG guidance implementation intentions; and whether the guidance has created health inequality based on socioeconomic status.

Design And Setting: Interrupted time series analysis of primary care prescribing data in England.

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Background: Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with health inequality. Previous studies have described associations between primary care prescribing rates and deprivation for individual drugs or drug classes. We explore the correlation between socioeconomic deprivation and the rate of prescribing of individual pharmaceutical drugs, and drug classes, in primary care in England, to identify prescribing inequalities that would require further investigation.

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Objectives: To identify key predictors of general practitioner (GP) consultations for allergic rhinitis (AR) using meteorological and environmental data.

Design: A retrospective, time series analysis of GP consultations for AR.

Setting: A large GP surveillance network of GP practices in the London area.

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Background: Concerns have been raised that women from deprived backgrounds are less likely to be receiving hormone replacement therapy (HRT) treatment and its benefits, although evidence in support of this is lacking.

Aim: To investigate general practice HRT prescription trends and their association with markers of socioeconomic deprivation.

Design And Setting: Cross-sectional study of primary care prescribing data in England in 2018.

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Between 11-13 December 2018, local public health authorities in the West Midlands, England were alerted to 34 reports of diarrhoea with abdominal cramps. Symptom onset was ~10 h after diners ate Christmas meals at a restaurant between 7-9 December 2018. A retrospective case-control study, environmental and microbiological investigations were undertaken to determine the source and control the outbreak.

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Unlabelled: Introduction The Public Health England (PHE; United Kingdom) Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team (ReSST) currently operates four national syndromic surveillance systems, including an emergency department system. A system based on ambulance data might provide an additional measure of the "severe" end of the clinical disease spectrum. This report describes the findings and lessons learned from the development and preliminary assessment of a pilot syndromic surveillance system using ambulance data from the West Midlands (WM) region in England.

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Unlabelled: Introduction In preparation for the London 2012 Olympic Games, existing syndromic surveillance systems operating in England were expanded to include daily general practitioner (GP) out-of-hours (OOH) contacts and emergency department (ED) attendances at sentinel sites (the GP OOH and ED syndromic surveillance systems: GPOOHS and EDSSS). Hypothesis/Problem The further development of syndromic surveillance systems in time for the London 2012 Olympic Games provided a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of a large mass-gathering event on public health and health services as monitored in near real-time by syndromic surveillance of GP OOH contacts and ED attendances. This can, in turn, aid the planning of future events.

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To determine whether the recommended screening interval for diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the UK can safely be extended beyond 1 year. Systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies. Nine databases were searched with no date restrictions.

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