Observed mechanisms activating the recent subpolar North Atlantic Warming since 2016.

The overturning circulation of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) plays a fundamental role in Earth's climate variability and change. Here, we show from observations that the recent warming period since about 2016 in the eastern SPNA involves increased western boundary density at the intergyre boundary, likely due to enhanced buoyancy forcing as a response to the strong increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation since the early 2010s. As these deep positive density anomalies spread southward along the western boundary, they enhance the North Atlantic Current and associated meridional heat transport at the intergyre region, leading to increased influx of subtropical heat into the eastern SPNA.

Buoyancy forcing and the subpolar Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its variability are examined in terms of the overturning in density space and diapycnal water mass transformation. The magnitude of the mean overturning is similar to the surface water mass transformation, but the density and properties of these waters are modified by diapycnal mixing. Surface waters are progressively densified while circulating cyclonically around the subpolar gyre, with the densest waters and deepest convection occurring in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas.