COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021.

Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level.

The inverse relationship between life expectancy-induced changes in the old-age dependency ratio and the prospective old-age dependency ratio.

Unlike other biological populations, the human population is experiencing long-run increases in life expectancy. Those lead to changes in age compositions not typical for other biological populations. Sanderson and Scherbov (2015a) demonstrated that, in many countries in Europe, faster increases in life expectancy lead to faster population aging when measured using the old-age dependency ratio and to slower population aging when measured using the prospective old-age dependency ratio that employs a dynamic old-age threshold.

Constrained Mortality Extrapolation to Old Age: An Empirical Assessment.

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of parametric extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, is not sufficient for reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Human Mortality Database and the use of the Horiuchi-Coale and Mitra formulas for reducing the bias of life expectancy in the open age interval.

Expectation of life at old age: revisiting Horiuchi-Coale and reconciling with Mitra.

Data quality issues at advanced old age, such as incompleteness of registration of vital events and age misreporting, compromise estimates of the death rates and remaining life expectancy at those ages. Following up on Horiuchi and Coale (Population Studies 36: 317-326, 1982), Mitra (Population Studies 38: 313-319, 1984, Population Studies 39: 511-512, 1985), and Coale (Population Studies 39: 507-509, 1985), we examine the conventional approaches to constructing life tables from data deficient at advanced ages and the two adjustment methods by the mentioned authors. Contrary to earlier reports by Horiuchi, Coale, and Mitra, we show that the two methods are consistent and useful in drastically reducing the estimation errors in life expectancy as compared to the conventional approaches, i.

Why increasing longevity may favour a PAYG pension system over a funded system.

When pension systems are contrasted it is common to use simplified demographic models, such as overlapping generation models with time-invariant mortality. Breaking with this tradition, we show that for a population with increasing longevity, the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system may be more advantageous than a funded system (FS). Increasing longevity favours the PAYG system because for the workers living longer at retirement than current retirees, it is less costly to fund others' current pensions than their own.

On the reproductive value and the spectrum of a population projection matrix with implications for dynamic population models.

The eigenvalues of a population projection matrix-except for the Lotka coefficient-are uniquely determined by the reproductive values and the survival. This relation (proposed earlier, but not really well known in western literature) follows from another useful relation between fertility, reproductive values, survival, and Lotka's coefficient. These results are applied to provide demographic interpretations to the intrinsically dynamic and metastable population models by Schoen and co-workers.

On the definition of the reproductive value: response to the discussion by Bacaër and Abdurahman.

The note attempts to address concerns expressed by Bacaër and Abdurahman (J Math Biol, 2008) in this journal about the definition of generalized reproductive value (RV) as proposed by Ediev (Theor Popul Biol 72(4):480-484, 2007).

On an extension of R.A. Fisher's result on the dynamics of the reproductive value.

A classical result by Fisher concerning reproductive value dynamics is extended to the case of varying vital rates with a constant cohort Lotka's r. Based on the demographic potential approach, a generalization of the concept of reproductive value is introduced, which exhibits exponential dynamics both in the classical case of constant vital rates and in a wider class of populations. The generalized reproductive value introduced in this paper fits the classical interpretation by Fisher as a discounted sum of future births in the general class of models addressed here.