Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part II. The impact of non-climatic factors.

Malaria transmission is a multifactorial phenomenon. Climate is a major limiting factor in the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria, but many non-climatic factors may alter or override the effect of climate. Thirty years of monthly malaria incidence data from KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, reveal strong medium and long-term trends, which were not present in the climate data.

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part I. The impact of climatic factors.

Large parts of Africa are prone to malaria epidemics. Advance epidemic warning would give health services an opportunity to prepare. Because malaria transmission is largely limited by climate, climate-based epidemic warning systems are a real possibility.

Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa.

Background: Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission.

Methods: We produced a spatiotemporally validated (against 3791 parasite surveys) model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa.

The application of geographical information systems to important public health problems in Africa.

Africa is generally held to be in crisis, and the quality of life for the majority of the continent's inhabitants has been declining in both relative and absolute terms. In addition, the majority of the world's disease burden is realised in Africa. Geographical information systems (GIS) technology, therefore, is a tool of great inherent potential for health research and management in Africa.