Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry.

The Statistics Expert Group was convened at the request of the Infected Blood Inquiry to provide estimates of the number of infections and deaths from blood-borne infections including hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, as a direct result of contaminated blood and blood products administered in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). In the absence of databases of HCV infections and related deaths for all nations of the UK, a statistical model was required to estimate the number of infections and subsequent deaths from HCV acquired from blood transfusions from January 1970 to August 1991. We present this statistical model in detail alongside the results of its application to each of the four nations in the UK.

Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations.

Objectives: To help people make decisions about the most effective mitigation measures against SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different scenarios, the likelihoods of transmission by different routes need to be quantified to some degree (however uncertain). These likelihoods need to be communicated in an appropriate way to illustrate the relative importance of different routes in different scenarios, the likely effectiveness of different mitigation measures along those routes, and the level of uncertainty in those estimates. In this study, a pragmatic expert elicitation was undertaken to supply the underlying quantitative values to produce such a communication tool.

The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials.

Background: The quality of evidence about the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical health interventions is often low, but little is known about the effects of communicating indications of evidence quality to the public.

Methods: In two blinded, randomised, controlled, online experiments, US participants (total n = 2140) were shown one of several versions of an infographic illustrating the effectiveness of eye protection in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Their trust in the information, understanding, feelings of effectiveness of eye protection, and the likelihood of them adopting it were measured.