A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.

Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry. The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R(0)): 1.

Sampling for global epidemic models and the topology of an international airport network.

Mathematical models that describe the global spread of infectious diseases such as influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and tuberculosis (TB) often consider a sample of international airports as a network supporting disease spread. However, there is no consensus on how many cities should be selected or on how to select those cities. Using airport flight data that commercial airlines reported to the Official Airline Guide (OAG) in 2000, we have examined the network characteristics of network samples obtained under different selection rules.

Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions.

Background: Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration.

Methods And Findings: A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination.

A model for the oscillatory motion of single dynein molecules.

Axonemal dynein is the molecular motor responsible for the rhythmic beating of eukaryotic cilia and flagella. An individual axonemal dynein molecule is capable of both unidirectional and oscillatory motion along a microtubule (Nature 393 (1998) 711). We propose a model which links the physical motion of a two-headed dynein molecule to its ATP hydrolysis cycle, and which exhibits both processive and oscillatory behaviors.