Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends.

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.

Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems.

We investigate various estimators based on extreme value theory (EVT) for determining the local fractal dimension of chaotic dynamical systems. In the limit of an infinitely long time series of an ergodic system, the average of the local fractal dimension is the system's global attractor dimension. The latter is an important quantity that relates to the number of effective degrees of freedom of the underlying dynamical system, and its estimation has been a central topic in the dynamical systems literature since the 1980s.

Dynamical diagnostic of extreme events in Venice lagoon and their mitigation with the MoSE.

Extreme events are becoming more frequent due to anthropogenic climate change, posing serious concerns on societal and economic impacts and asking for mitigating strategies, as for Venice. Here we proposed a dynamical diagnostic of Extreme Sea Level (ESL) events in the Venice lagoon by using two indicators based on combining extreme value theory and dynamical systems: the instantaneous dimension and the inverse persistence. We show that the latter allows us to localize ESL events with respect to sea level fluctuations around the astronomical tide, while the former informs us on the role of active processes across the lagoon and specifically on the constructive interference of atmospheric contributions with the astronomical tide.