An analysis of NHS 111 demand for primary care services: A retrospective cohort study.

The NHS 111 service triages over 16,650,745 calls per year and approximately 48% of callers are triaged to a primary care disposition, such as a telephone appointment with a general practitioner (GP). However, there has been little assessment of the ability of primary care services to meet this demand. If a timely service cannot be provided to patients, it could result in patients calling 999 or attending emergency departments (ED) instead.

Modelling NHS England 111 demand for primary care services: a discrete event simulation.

Objectives: This feasibility study aimed to model in silico the current healthcare system for patients triaged to a primary care disposition following a call to National Health Service (NHS) 111 and determine the effect of reconfiguring the healthcare system to ensure a timely primary care service contact.

Design: Discrete event simulation.

Setting: Single English NHS 111 call centre in Yorkshire.

Modelling palliative and end-of-life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care.

Objectives: The WHO estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 1.3 million deaths (1 377 395) globally (as of November 2020). This surge in death necessitates identification of resource needs and relies on modelling resource and understanding anticipated surges in demand.

Using computer simulation to model the expansion needs of the ambulatory emergency care unit at Derriford Hospital.

Ambulatory emergency care (AEC) units can treat a wide variety of patients referred from the emergency department (ED) and acute general practitioners, helping to ease ED pressures and reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. We developed a simulation model to assess the potential benefits of expanding the size and opening times of the AEC unit at Derriford Hospital in Plymouth, both separately and in combination. The model predicted that an expanded size of AEC unit could help to improve the effectiveness of the unit, but not as much as extending the opening hours of the unit, which was predicted to result in a significant impact on the number of patients that can be seen and treated in the AEC unit.