What and how can we learn from complex global problems for antimicrobial resistance policy? A comparative study combining historical and foresight approaches.

Objectives: To (i) develop a methodology for using historical and comparative perspectives to inform policy and (ii) provide evidence for antimicrobial-resistance (AMR) policymaking by drawing on lessons from climate change and tobacco control.

Methods: Using a qualitative design, we systematically examined two other complex, large-scale policy issues-climate change and tobacco control-to identify what relevance to AMR can be learned from how these issues have evolved over time. During 2018-2020, we employed a five-stage approach to conducting an exploratory study involving a review of secondary historical analysis, identification of drivers of change, prioritisation of the identified drivers, scenario generation and elicitation of possible policy responses.