A discrete Markov metapopulation model for persistence and extinction of species.

A simple discrete generation Markov metapopulation model is formulated for studying the persistence and extinction dynamics of a species in a given region which is divided into a large number of sites or patches. Assuming a linear site occupancy probability from one generation to the next we obtain exact expressions for the time evolution of the expected number of occupied sites and the mean-time to extinction (MTE). Under quite general conditions we show that the MTE, to leading order, is proportional to the logarithm of the initial number of occupied sites and in precise agreement with similar expressions for continuous time-dependent stochastic models.

A novel method for estimating the number of species within a region.

Ecologists are often required to estimate the number of species in a region or designated area. A number of diversity indices are available for this purpose and are based on sampling the area using quadrats or other means, and estimating the total number of species from these samples. In this paper, a novel theory and method for estimating the number of species is developed.

Designing nature reserves in the face of uncertainty.

Conservation reserves are a fundamental tool for managing biodiversity. The so-called SLOSS debate--should we have a Single Large Or Several Small reserves - is central to conservation theory. Population dynamic models suggest that the design that minimizes the risk of extinction of a species is case-specific, with the optimal number of reserves ranging between one and very many.

Resource allocation for efficient environmental management.

Environmental managers must decide how to invest available resources. Researchers have previously determined how to allocate conservation resources among regions, design nature reserves, allocate funding to species conservation programs, design biodiversity surveys and monitoring programs, manage species and invest in greenhouse gas mitigation schemes. However, these issues have not been addressed with a unified theory.

Enzymatic synthesis and evaluation of new novel omega-pentadecalactone polymers for the production of biodegradable microspheres.

Two novel co-polymers based on omega-pentadecalactone were enzymatically synthesized by a combination of ring-opening polymerization and polycondensation. Modified literature procedures enabled the production of the semi-crystalline materials with suitable molecular weights and melting characteristics. Microspheres were produced using an emulsion solvent evaporation method over a range of variables including manufacturing temperature, stirring speed and duration, surfactant concentration, continuous and disperse phase volume and polymer amount to establish how each variable affected the morphological characteristics of the microspheres.

Logic for designing nature reserves for multiple species.

We examine the logic of designing nature reserves to understand better how to integrate the concepts of representativeness and persistence. Simple models of viability are used to evaluate how the expected number of species in the reserve system changes with variation in the risk of extinction among species, their rate of occurrence, and the distribution of species. The optimal size of individual reserves increased with the mean and variance of the probability of extinction among species and with the rate at which the risk of extinction declines with the cost of each reserve.

Theory for designing nature reserves for single species.

We examine the question of the optimal number of reserves that should be established to maximize the persistence of a species. We assume that the mean time to extinction of a single population increases as a power of the habitat area, that there is a certain amount of habitat to be reserved, and that the aim is to determine how this habitat is most efficiently divided. The optimal configuration depends on whether the management objective is to maximize the mean time to extinction or minimize the risk of extinction.

Assessment of guidelines for limiting exposures to emf using methods of probabilistic risk analysis.

Allowable limits of human exposure to radiofrequency fields commonly include a "factor of safety," typically between 10 to 50, which is somewhat arbitrary. The broad objective in our work is to assess radiofrequency exposure limits, hazard thresholds, and safety factors using methods of probabilistic risk analysis. We focus our analysis on the variables affecting peak radiofrequency specific energy absorption rate (SAR) values in the brain from digital mobile telephones operating at approximately 900 MHz.