Disruption of outdoor activities caused by wildfires increases disease circulation.

Although climate change poses a well-established risk to human health, present-day health impacts, particularly those resulting from climate-induced behavioral changes, are under-quantified. Analyzing the U.S.

Strategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework.

Multinational epidemics of emerging infectious diseases are increasingly common, due to anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems and the growing connectivity of human populations. Early and efficient vaccination can contain outbreaks and prevent mass mortality, but optimal vaccine stockpiling strategies are dependent on pathogen characteristics, reservoir ecology, and epidemic dynamics. Here, we model major regional outbreaks of Nipah virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and use these to develop a generalized framework for estimating vaccine stockpile needs based on spillover geography, spatially-heterogeneous healthcare capacity and spatially-distributed human mobility networks.

The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk.

Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness.

Viral genomic features predict reservoir hosts.

Orthopoxviruses (OPVs), including the causative agents of smallpox and mpox have led to devastating outbreaks in human populations worldwide. However, the discontinuation of smallpox vaccination, which also provides cross-protection against related OPVs, has diminished global immunity to OPVs more broadly. We apply machine learning models incorporating both host ecological and viral genomic features to predict likely reservoirs of OPVs.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control.

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives.

Network embedding unveils the hidden interactions in the mammalian virome.

Predicting host-virus interactions is fundamentally a network science problem. We develop a method for bipartite network prediction that combines a recommender system (linear filtering) with an imputation algorithm based on low-rank graph embedding. We test this method by applying it to a global database of mammal-virus interactions and thus show that it makes biologically plausible predictions that are robust to data biases.

Ecological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017-2021.

Beginning December 2016, sylvatic yellow fever (YF) outbreaks spread into southeastern Brazil, and Minas Gerais state experienced two sylvatic YF waves (2017 and 2018). Following these massive YF waves, we screened 187 free-living non-human primate (NHPs) carcasses collected throughout the state between January 2019 and June 2021 for YF virus (YFV) using RTqPCR. One sample belonging to a Callithrix, collected in June 2020, was positive for YFV.

Coronavirus sampling and surveillance in bats from 1996-2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 highlights a need for evidence-based strategies to monitor bat viruses. We performed a systematic review of coronavirus sampling (testing for RNA positivity) in bats globally. We identified 110 studies published between 2005 and 2020 that collectively reported positivity from 89,752 bat samples.

Exploring the Mosquito-Arbovirus Network: A Survey of Vector Competence Experiments.

Arboviruses receive heightened research attention during major outbreaks or when they cause unusual or severe clinical disease, but they are otherwise undercharacterized. Global change is also accelerating the emergence and spread of arboviral diseases, leading to time-sensitive questions about potential interactions between viruses and novel vectors. Vector competence experiments help determine the susceptibility of certain arthropods to a given arbovirus, but these experiments are often conducted in real time during outbreaks, rather than with preparedness in mind.

The World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News: A retrospective database.

The World Health Organization (WHO) notifies the global community about disease outbreaks through the Disease Outbreak News (DON). These online reports tell important stories about both outbreaks themselves and the high-level decision making that governs information sharing during public health emergencies. However, they have been used only minimally in global health scholarship to date.

Rapid range shifts in African mosquitoes over the last century.

Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infectious diseases-will be displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. These shifts are frequently projected for the future, but rarely documented in the present day. Here, we use one of the most comprehensive datasets ever compiled by medical entomologists to track the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors ( spp.

Spatial parasitology and the unmapped human helminthiases.

Helminthiases are a class of neglected tropical diseases that affect at least 1 billion people worldwide, with a disproportionate impact on resource-poor areas with limited disease surveillance. Geospatial methods can offer valuable insights into the burden of these infections, particularly given that many are subject to strong ecological influences on the environmental, vector-borne or zoonotic stages of their life cycle. In this study, we screened 6829 abstracts and analysed 485 studies that use maps to document, infer or predict transmission patterns for over 200 species of parasitic worms.

A minimum data standard for vector competence experiments.

The growing threat of vector-borne diseases, highlighted by recent epidemics, has prompted increased focus on the fundamental biology of vector-virus interactions. To this end, experiments are often the most reliable way to measure vector competence (the potential for arthropod vectors to transmit certain pathogens). Data from these experiments are critical to understand outbreak risk, but - despite having been collected and reported for a large range of vector-pathogen combinations - terminology is inconsistent, records are scattered across studies, and the accompanying publications often share data with insufficient detail for reuse or synthesis.

Glycosylation and the global virome.

The sugars that coat the outsides of viruses and host cells are key to successful disease transmission, but they remain understudied compared to other molecular features. Understanding the comparative zoology of glycosylation - and harnessing it for predictive science - could help close the molecular gap in zoonotic risk assessment.

A treaty to break the pandemic cycle.

An evidence-based treaty must balance prevention, preparedness, response, and repair.

International law reform for One Health notifications.

Epidemic risk assessment and response relies on rapid information sharing. Using examples from the past decade, we discuss the limitations of the present system for outbreak notifications, which suffers from ambiguous obligations, fragile incentives, and an overly narrow focus on human outbreaks. We examine existing international legal frameworks, and provide clarity on what a successful One Health approach to proposed international law reforms-including a pandemic treaty and amendments to the International Health Regulations-would require.

Present and future distribution of bat hosts of sarbecoviruses: implications for conservation and public health.

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus ), given that several closely related viruses have been discovered and sarbecovirus-host interactions have gained attention since SARS-CoV-2 emergence.

Climate and health: An evolving relationship.

Understanding and addressing the complex effects of climate change on planetary health requires a multidisciplinary approach. Here, experts share their experience working at the intersection of health and climate. Their Voices advocate for cooperation, rethinking the concept of sustainability,and urge for immediate action to preserve global health.

Urban-adapted mammal species have more known pathogens.

The world is rapidly urbanizing, inviting mounting concern that urban environments will experience increased zoonotic disease risk. Urban animals could have more frequent contact with humans, therefore transmitting more zoonotic parasites; however, this relationship is complicated by sampling bias and phenotypic confounders. Here we test whether urban mammal species host more zoonotic parasites, investigating the underlying drivers alongside a suite of phenotypic, taxonomic and geographic predictors.

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.

At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence.

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries.

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.

Virus isolation data improve host predictions for New World rodent orthohantaviruses.

Identifying reservoir host species is crucial for understanding the ecology of multi-host pathogens and predicting risks of pathogen spillover from wildlife to people. Predictive models are increasingly used for identifying ecological traits and prioritizing surveillance of likely zoonotic reservoirs, but these often employ different types of evidence for establishing host associations. Comparisons between models with different infection evidence are necessary to guide inferences about the trait profiles of likely hosts and identify which hosts and geographical regions are likely sources of spillover.

Assessing the risk of human-to-wildlife pathogen transmission for conservation and public health.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to increased concern over transmission of pathogens from humans to animals, and its potential to threaten conservation and public health. To assess this threat, we reviewed published evidence of human-to-wildlife transmission events, with a focus on how such events could threaten animal and human health. We identified 97 verified examples, involving a wide range of pathogens; however, reported hosts were mostly non-human primates or large, long-lived captive animals.